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Non-pharmaceutical measures such as social distancing, can play an important role to control an epidemic in the absence of vaccinations. In this paper, we study the impact of social distancing on epidemics for which it is executable. We use…
The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is…
In this research, we study the propagation patterns of epidemic diseases such as the COVID-19 coronavirus, from a mathematical modeling perspective. The study is based on an extensions of the well-known susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…
In this article we propose a compartmental model for the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). We take into account the presence of asymptomatic infections and the main policies that have been adopted so far to contain the…
Recent studies in network science and control have shown a meaningful relationship between the epidemic processes (e.g., COVID-19 spread) and some network properties. This paper studies how such network properties, namely clustering…
Compartmental models are the most widely used framework for modeling infectious diseases. These models have been continuously refined to incorporate all the realistic mechanisms that can shape the course of an epidemic outbreak. Building on…
Group testing can save testing resources in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In group testing, we are given $n$ samples, one per individual, and arrange them into $m < n$ pooled samples, where each pool is obtained by mixing a…
We study an individual-based stochastic SIR epidemic model with infection-age dependent infectivity on a large random graph, capturing individual heterogeneity and non-homogeneous connectivity. Each individual is associated with particular…
Developing the ability to comprehensively study infections in small populations enables us to improve epidemic models and better advise individuals about potential risks to their health. We currently have a limited understanding of how…
Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of complex and realistic scenarios that go from the population to the individual level of description. However, most epidemic models assume that the spreading process takes place…
I employ a simple mathematical model of an epidemic process to evaluate how four basic quantities: the reproduction number (R), the numbers of sensitive (S) and infectious individuals(I), and total community size (N) affect strategies to…
Estimating the prevalence of a disease is necessary for evaluating and mitigating risks of its transmission within or between populations. Estimates that consider how prevalence changes with time provide more information about these risks…
In this paper, we study how interactions between populations impact epidemic spread. We extend the classical SEIR model to include both integration-based disease transmission simulation and population flow. Our model differs from existing…
Traditional biomedical approaches treat diseases in isolation, but the importance of synergistic disease interactions is now recognized. As a first step we present and analyze a simple coinfection model for two diseases affecting…
We consider a model for an epidemic in a population that occupies geographically distinct locations. The disease is spread within subpopulations by contacts between infective and susceptible individuals, and is spread between subpopulations…
Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…
Assessing and managing the impact of large-scale epidemics considering only the individual risk and severity of the disease is exceedingly difficult and could be extremely expensive. Economic consequences, infrastructure and service…
Risk-driven behavior provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce a general and flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in the…
High impact epidemics constitute one of the largest threats humanity is facing in the 21st century. Testing, contact tracing and quarantining are critical in slowing down epidemic dynamics, but may prove insufficient for highly contagious…
We study equilibrium distancing during epidemics. Distancing reduces the individual's probability of getting infected but comes at a cost. It creates a single-peaked epidemic, flattens the curve and decreases the size of the epidemic. We…