Related papers: Subspace Shrinkage in Conjugate Bayesian Vector Au…
Conjugate priors allow for fast inference in large dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models but, at the same time, introduce the restriction that each equation features the same set of explanatory variables. This paper proposes a…
Large Bayesian VARs are now widely used in empirical macroeconomics. One popular shrinkage prior in this setting is the natural conjugate prior as it facilitates posterior simulation and leads to a range of useful analytical results. This…
Vector autogressions (VARs) are widely applied when it comes to modeling and forecasting macroeconomic variables. In high dimensions, however, they are prone to overfitting. Bayesian methods, more concretely shrinkage priors, have shown to…
We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional vector autoregression (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors. Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural VAR representation of the parameter…
The reduced-rank vector autoregressive (VAR) model can be interpreted as a supervised factor model, where two factor modelings are simultaneously applied to response and predictor spaces. This article introduces a new model, called vector…
Factor models are widely used for dimension reduction. Bayesian approaches to these models often place a prior on the factor loadings that allows for infinitely many factors, with loadings increasingly shrunk toward zero as the column index…
There has been increased research interest in the subfield of sparse Bayesian factor analysis with shrinkage priors, which achieve additional sparsity beyond the natural parsimonity of factor models. In this spirit, we estimate the number…
We study the problem of automatically discovering Granger causal relations from observational multivariate time-series data.Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have been time-tested for this problem, including Bayesian variants and more…
Commonly used priors for Vector Autoregressions (VARs) induce shrinkage on the autoregressive coefficients. Introducing shrinkage on the error covariance matrix is sometimes done but, in the vast majority of cases, without considering the…
We develop a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model with multivariate stochastic volatility that is capable of handling vast dimensional information sets. Three features are introduced to permit reliable estimation of the model. First,…
This paper addresses the weak instruments problem in linear instrumental variable models from a Bayesian perspective. The new approach has two components. First, a novel predictor-dependent shrinkage prior is developed for the many…
Sparse Bayesian factor models are routinely implemented for parsimonious dependence modeling and dimensionality reduction in high-dimensional applications. We provide theoretical understanding of such Bayesian procedures in terms of…
Variable selection over a potentially large set of covariates in a linear model is quite popular. In the Bayesian context, common prior choices can lead to a posterior expectation of the regression coefficients that is a sparse (or nearly…
Vector autoregression (VAR) models are widely used for forecasting and macroeconomic analysis, yet they remain limited by their reliance on a linear parameterization. Recent research has introduced nonparametric alternatives, such as…
There is a wide variety of models in which the dimension of the parameter space is unknown. For example, in factor analysis the number of latent factors is typically not known and has to be inferred from the observed data. Although…
This study proposes a novel hierarchical prior for inferring possibly low-rank matrices measured with noise. We consider three-component matrix factorization, as in singular value decomposition, and its fully Bayesian inference. The…
Large Bayesian vector autoregressions with various forms of stochastic volatility have become increasingly popular in empirical macroeconomics. One main difficulty for practitioners is to choose the most suitable stochastic volatility…
In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…
In Bayesian regression models with categorical predictors, constraints are needed to ensure identifiability when using all $K$ levels of a factor. The sum-to-zero constraint is particularly useful as it allows coefficients to represent…
Crossing of fitted conditional quantiles is a prevalent problem for quantile regression models. We propose a new Bayesian modelling framework that penalises multiple quantile regression functions toward the desired non-crossing space. We…