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Global fits of physics models require efficient methods for exploring high-dimensional and/or multimodal posterior functions. We introduce a novel method for accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by pairing a…
Multi-sensor state space models underpin fusion applications in networks of sensors. Estimation of latent parameters in these models has the potential to provide highly desirable capabilities such as network self-calibration. Conventional…
We investigate the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to sample posterior distribution in a Bayesian inverse problem, where the likelihood function is random. Concretely, we consider the case where one has full field observations of a…
In this paper we address the problem of the prohibitively large computational cost of existing Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for large--scale applications with high dimensional parameter spaces, e.g. in uncertainty quantification in…
This paper develops a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approach for joint state and parameter estimation that can deal efficiently with abruptly changing parameters which is a common case when tracking maneuvering targets. The approach…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are one of the most popular classes of algorithms for sampling from a target probability distribution. A rising trend in recent years consists in analyzing the convergence of MCMC algorithms using…
We consider Bayesian online static parameter estimation for state-space models. This is a very important problem, but is very computationally challenging as the state- of-the art methods that are exact, often have a computational cost that…
A parameter estimation problem is considered for a linear stochastic hyperbolic equation driven by additive space-time Gaussian white noise. The damping/amplification operator is allowed to be unbounded. The estimator is of spectral type…
In this paper, we introduce a new approach for integrating score-based models with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. While traditional score-based diffusion models excel in accurately learning the score function from data points, they lack…
The Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC), especially the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm, is a widely used technique for sampling from a target probability distribution $P$ on a state space $\Omega$ and applied to various problems such…
We consider parametric estimation for a parabolic linear second order stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) from high frequency data which are observed in time and space. By using thinned data obtained from the high frequency…
The ability to generate samples of the random effects from their conditional distributions is fundamental for inference in mixed effects models. Random walk Metropolis is widely used to conduct such sampling, but such a method can converge…
We introduce a modification of the well-known Metropolis importance sampling algorithm by using a methodology inspired on the consideration of the reparametrization invariance of the microcanonical ensemble. The most important feature of…
Estimation of small failure probabilities is one of the most important and challenging computational problems in reliability engineering. The failure probability is usually given by an integral over a high-dimensional uncertain parameter…
We analyse computational efficiency of Metropolis-Hastings algorithms with stochastic AR(1) process proposals. These proposals include, as a subclass, discretized Langevin diffusion (e.g. MALA) and discretized Hamiltonian dynamics (e.g.…
Fitting stochastic kinetic models represented by Markov jump processes within the Bayesian paradigm is complicated by the intractability of the observed data likelihood. There has therefore been considerable attention given to the design of…
Inferring how an epidemic will progress and what actions to take when presented with limited information is of critical importance for epidemiologists and health professionals. In real world settings, epidemiology data can be scarce or…
The Hawkes process is a widely used model in many areas, such as finance, seismology, neuroscience, epidemiology, and social sciences. Estimation of the Hawkes process from continuous observations of a sample path is relatively…
Monte Carlo (MC) sampling methods are widely applied in Bayesian inference, system simulation and optimization problems. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a well-known class of MC methods which generate a Markov chain with…
Change-point processes are one flexible approach to model long time series. We propose a method to uncover which model parameter truly vary when a change-point is detected. Given a set of breakpoints, we use a penalized likelihood approach…