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This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates of both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this problem does not have a tractable solution and approximations must be utilised. In this…
The challenging problem of conducting fully Bayesian inference for the reaction rate constants governing stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) is considered. Given the challenges underlying this problem, the Markov jump process representation is…
Much recent research has been conducted in the area of Bayesian learning, particularly with regard to the optimization of hyper-parameters via Gaussian process regression. The methodologies rely chiefly on the method of maximizing the…
Metropolis-Hastings estimates intractable expectations - can differentiating the algorithm estimate their gradients? The challenge is that Metropolis-Hastings trajectories are not conventionally differentiable due to the discrete…
Parameter inference is a fundamental problem in data-driven modeling. Given observed data that is believed to be a realization of some parameterized model, the aim is to find parameter values that are able to explain the observed data. In…
Parameter estimation for a parabolic linear stochastic partial differential equation in one space dimension is studied observing the solution field on a discrete grid in a fixed bounded domain. Considering an infill asymptotic regime in…
Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) are used as statistical models in many disciplines. However, intractable likelihood functions for SDEs make inference challenging, and we need to resort to simulation-based techniques to estimate and…
Experimental calibration of dynamic thermal models is required for model predictive control and characterization of building energy performance. In these applications, the uncertainty assessment of the parameter estimates is decisive; this…
This paper presents an algorithm for sampling random variables that allows to separation of the sampling process into subproblems by dividing the sample space into overlapping parts. The subproblems can be solved independently of each other…
The coefficients of elastic and dissipative operators in a linear hyperbolic SPDE are jointly estimated using multiple spatially localised measurements. As the resolution level of the observations tends to zero, we establish the asymptotic…
We present several implementations of the Metropolis method, an adaptive Monte Carlo algorithm, which allow for the calculation of multi-dimensional integrals over arbitrary on-shell four-momentum phase space. The Metropolis technique…
The missing data issue often complicates the task of estimating generalized linear models (GLMs). We describe why the pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, used in this setting, is an effective strategy for parameter estimation.…
A novel evolutionary method is introduced that can be used for constraining the parameters and theoretical models of Cosmology. The newly proposed algorithm, which is inherently parallel by design, is able to obtain the full potential of…
Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models are ubiquitous in statistics, econometrics, information engineering and signal processing. Particle methods, also known as Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, provide reliable numerical…
We present a parameter estimation procedure based on a Bayesian framework by applying a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to the calibration of the dynamical parameters of a space based gravitational wave detector. The method is based on…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have a drawback when working with a target distribution or likelihood function that is computationally expensive to evaluate, specially when working with big data. This paper focuses on…
In regression models for spatial data, it is often assumed that the marginal effects of covariates on the response are constant over space. In practice, this assumption might often be questionable. In this article, we show how a Gaussian…
Estimating the parameters of max-stable parametric models poses significant challenges, particularly when some parameters lie on the boundary of the parameter space. This situation arises when a subset of variables exhibits extreme values…
This tutorial provides a gentle introduction to the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm for parameter inference in nonlinear state-space models together with a software implementation in the statistical programming language R. We…
The pseudo-marginal algorithm is a variant of the Metropolis--Hastings algorithm which samples asymptotically from a probability distribution when it is only possible to estimate unbiasedly an unnormalized version of its density.…