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Ingroup favoritism, the tendency to favor ingroup over outgroup, is often explained as a product of intergroup conflict, or correlations between group tags and behavior. Such accounts assume that group membership is meaningful, whereas…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2019-08-23 Marcel Montrey , Thomas R. Shultz

The effects of treatments may differ between persons with different characteristics. Addressing such treatment heterogeneity is crucial to investigate whether patients with specific characteristics are likely to benefit from a new…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-29 Xynthia Kavelaars , Joris Mulder , Maurits Kaptein

Background: Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-11-18 A. E. Allahverdyan , Aram Galstyan

Recent research revealed a considerable lack of reliability for user feedback when interacting with adaptive systems, often denoted as user noise or human uncertainty. Moreover, this lack of reliability holds striking impacts for the…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2018-05-01 Kevin Jasberg , Sergej Sizov

This paper examines the impact of cognitive biases on financial decision-making through a static Bayesian game framework. While traditional economic theory assumes fully rational investors, real-world choices are often shaped by loss…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-05-27 Samiha Tariq

Empirical evidence shows that human behaviour often deviates from game-theoretical rationality. For instance, humans may hold unrealistic expectations about future outcomes. As the evolutionary roots of such biases remain unclear, we…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Marco Saponara , Elias Fernandez Domingos , Jorge M. Pacheco , Tom Lenaerts

Bayesian optimization (BO) with preference-based feedback has recently garnered significant attention due to its emerging applications. We refer to this problem as Bayesian Optimization from Human Feedback (BOHF), which differs from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Aya Kayal , Sattar Vakili , Laura Toni , Da-shan Shiu , Alberto Bernacchia

In this paper we consider the neuroscientific theory of the Bayesian brain in the light of adaptive web systems and content personalisation. In particular, we elaborate on neural mechanisms of human decision-making and the origin of lacking…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2018-02-19 Kevin Jasberg , Sergej Sizov

The tendency of repeating past choices more often than expected from the history of outcomes has been repeatedly empirically observed in reinforcement learning experiments. It can be explained by at least two computational processes:…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Isabelle Hoxha , Leo Sperber , Stefano Palminteri

Progress has led to a detailed understanding of the neural mechanisms that underlie decision making in primates. However, less is known about why such mechanisms are present in the first place. Theory suggests that primate decision making…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-21 Nathan J. Wispinski , Scott A. Stone , Anthony Singhal , Patrick M. Pilarski , Craig S. Chapman

Recent studies claim that human behavior in a two-armed Bernoulli bandit (TABB) task is described by positivity and confirmation biases, implying that humans do not integrate new information objectively. However, we find that even if the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-14 Prakhar Godara

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Yulun Wu , Louie McConnell , Claudia Iriondo

Bayesian decision theory outlines a rigorous framework for making optimal decisions based on maximizing expected utility over a model posterior. However, practitioners often do not have access to the full posterior and resort to approximate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

The Bayesian learning rule is a natural-gradient variational inference method, which not only contains many existing learning algorithms as special cases but also enables the design of new algorithms. Unfortunately, when variational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-27 Wu Lin , Mark Schmidt , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan

Bias in perceptual decisions comes to pass when the advance knowledge colludes with the current sensory evidence in support of the final choice. The literature on decision making suggests two main hypotheses to account for this kind of…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2017-10-17 Farzaneh Olianezhad , Maryam Tohidi-Moghaddam , Sajjad Zabbah , Reza Ebrahimpour

Bounded confidence opinion dynamics model the propagation of information in social networks. However in the existing literature, opinions are only viewed as abstract quantities without semantics rather than as part of a decision-making…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-06-17 Kush R. Varshney

The paper solves the problem of optimal portfolio choice when the parameters of the asset returns distribution, like the mean vector and the covariance matrix are unknown and have to be estimated by using historical data of the asset…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-04-19 David Bauder , Taras Bodnar , Nestor Parolya , Wolfgang Schmid

Bayesian optimization is a framework for global search via maximum a posteriori updates rather than simulated annealing, and has gained prominence for decision-making under uncertainty. In this work, we cast Bayesian optimization as a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-24 Amrit Singh Bedi , Dheeraj Peddireddy , Vaneet Aggarwal , Brian M. Sadler , Alec Koppel

Multi-armed bandits (MAB) model sequential decision making problems, in which a learner sequentially chooses arms with unknown reward distributions in order to maximize its cumulative reward. Most of the prior work on MAB assumes that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-22 Onur Atan , Cem Tekin , Mihaela van der Schaar

Deep learning has revolutionized the last decade, being at the forefront of extraordinary advances in a wide range of tasks including computer vision, natural language processing, and reinforcement learning, to name but a few. However, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Sebastian W. Ober