Related papers: Efficient Bayesian estimation of the generalized L…
We study the relaxation process in normal and anomalous diffusion regimes for systems described by a generalized Langevin equation (GLE). We demonstrate the existence of a very general correlation function which describes the relaxation…
Discrete state spaces represent a major computational challenge to statistical inference, since the computation of normalisation constants requires summation over large or possibly infinite sets, which can be impractical. This paper…
Analysing non-Gaussian spatial-temporal data requires introducing spatial as well as temporal dependence in generalised linear models through the link function of an exponential family distribution. Unlike in Gaussian likelihoods, inference…
The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is a popular model for analyzing and forecasting extreme weather data. To increase prediction accuracy, spatial information is often pooled via a latent Gaussian process (GP) on the GEV…
Empirical Bayes provides a powerful approach to learning and adapting to latent structure in data. Theory and algorithms for empirical Bayes have a rich literature for sequence models, but are less understood in settings where latent…
Langevin algorithms are popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian learning, particularly when the aim is to sample from the posterior distribution of a parametric model, given the input data and the prior distribution over the…
A model has two main aims: predicting the behavior of a physical system and understanding its nature, that is how it works, at some desired level of abstraction. A promising recent approach to model building consists in deriving a…
In this paper, we consider the generalised (higher order) Langevin equation for the purpose of simulated annealing and optimisation of nonconvex functions. Our approach modifies the underdamped Langevin equation by replacing the Brownian…
One of the main elements of the self-consistent generalized Langevin equation (SCGLE) theory of colloid dynamics [Phys. Rev. E {\bf 62}, 3382 (2000); ibid {\bf 72}, 031107 (2005)] is the introduction of exact short-time moment conditions in…
We present a derivation of a coarse-grained model from the Langevin dynamics. The focus is placed on the memory kernel function and the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. Also presented is an hierarchy of approximations for the memory and…
Stochastic differential equations are ubiquitous modelling tools in physics and the sciences. In most modelling scenarios, random fluctuations driving dynamics or motion have some non-trivial temporal correlation structure, which renders…
The Gaussian process (GP) regression model is a widely employed surrogate modeling technique for computer experiments, offering precise predictions and statistical inference for the computer simulators that generate experimental data.…
In order to improve forecasts, a decisionmaker often combines probabilities given by various sources, such as human experts and machine learning classifiers. When few training data are available, aggregation can be improved by incorporating…
A large amount of observational data has been accumulated in various fields in recent times, and there is a growing need to estimate the generating processes of these data. A linear non-Gaussian acyclic model (LiNGAM) based on the…
Generalization error (also known as the out-of-sample error) measures how well the hypothesis learned from training data generalizes to previously unseen data. Proving tight generalization error bounds is a central question in statistical…
Nonstationary time series data exist in various scientific disciplines, including environmental science, biology, signal processing, econometrics, among others. Many Bayesian models have been developed to handle nonstationary time series.…
Bayesian estimation strategies represent the most fundamental formulation of the state estimation problem available, and apply readily to nonlinear systems with non-Gaussian uncertainties. The present paper introduces a novel method for…
The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) hinges on the efficient training of modern deep neural networks (DNNs) for non-convex optimization and uncertainty quantification, which boils down to a non-convex Bayesian learning problem. A…
To account for measurement error (ME) in explanatory variables, Bayesian approaches provide a flexible framework, as expert knowledge about unobserved covariates can be incorporated in the prior distributions. However, given the analytic…
Deep learning models, such as convolutional neural networks, have long been applied to image and multi-media tasks, particularly those with structured data. More recently, there has been more attention to unstructured data that can be…