Related papers: Endogenous viral mutations, evolutionary selection…
The temporal dynamics of social interactions were shown to influence the spread of disease. Here, we model the conditions of progression and competition for several viral strains, exploring various levels of cross-immunity over temporal…
We consider a stochastic model for a pathogen population in the presence of an immune response, in which pathogen types are partially ordered by ancestry and the immune system must eliminate ancestor types before it can eliminate their…
We develop a new structured compartmental model for the coevolutionary dynamics between susceptible and infectious individuals in heterogeneous SI epidemiological systems. In this model, the susceptible compartment is structured by a…
Population dynamics and evolutionary genetics underly the structure of ecosystems, changing on the same timescale for interacting species with rapid turnover, such as virus (e.g. HIV) and immune response. Thus, an important problem in…
Infectious disease transmission in human populations has a complex two-way interaction with changes in host behaviour. It is increasingly recognised that incorporating adaptive behavioural change into epidemic models is important for…
Antibiotic resistance is a growing public health problem. To gain a fundamental understanding of resistance evolution, a combination of systematic experimental and theoretical approaches is required. Evolution experiments combined with…
A stochastic model for the growth of a virus in a cell population is introduced. The virus has two ways of spreading: either by allowing its host cell to live on and duplicate, or else by multiplying in large numbers within the host cell…
We consider the dynamics of a virus spreading through a population that produces a mutant strain with the ability to infect individuals that were infected with the established strain. Temporary cross-immunity is included using a time delay,…
Lockdown procedures have been proven successful in mitigating the spread of the viruses in this COVID-19 pandemic, but they also have devastating impact on the economy. We use a modified Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased model with…
To forecast the time dynamics of an epidemic, we propose a discrete stochastic model that unifies and generalizes previous approaches to the subject. Viewing a given population of individuals or groups of individuals with given health state…
BACKGROUND: An important question is whether evolution favors properties such as mutational robustness or evolvability that do not directly benefit any individual, but can influence the course of future evolution. Functionally similar…
We study a minimal stochastic individual-based model for a microbial population challenged by a persistent (lytic) virus epidemic. We focus on the situation in which the resident microbial host population and the virus population are in…
Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), due to its extremely high infectivity, has been spreading rapidly around the world and bringing huge influence to socioeconomic development as well as people's daily life. Taking for example the virus…
Testing individuals for pathogens can affect the spread of epidemics. Understanding how individual-level processes of sampling and reporting test results can affect community- or population-level spread is a dynamical modeling question. The…
Compartmental epidemiological models categorize individuals based on their disease status, such as the SEIRD model (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Dead). These models determine the parameters that influence the magnitude of an…
A novel bioinspired metaheuristic is proposed in this work, simulating how the coronavirus spreads and infects healthy people. From an initial individual (the patient zero), the coronavirus infects new patients at known rates, creating new…
One strategy for winning a coevolutionary struggle is to evolve rapidly. Most of the literature on host-pathogen coevolution focuses on this phenomenon, and looks for consequent evidence of coevolutionary arms races. An alternative…
The emergence of mutant lineages within a viral species has become a public health problem, as the existing treatments and drugs are usually more effective on the original lineages than in the mutant ones. The following manuscript presents…
National responses to the Covid-19 pandemic varied markedly across countries, from business-as-usual to complete shutdowns. Policies aimed at disrupting the viral transmission cycle and preventing the healthcare system from being…
We propose a physical theory underlying the temporal evolution of competing virus variants that relies on the existence of (quasi) fixed points capturing the large time scale invariance of the dynamics. To motivate our result we first…