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Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-01 Ge Yan , Yaniv Romano , Tsui-Wei Weng

High-dimensional sparse modeling via regularization provides a powerful tool for analyzing large-scale data sets and obtaining meaningful, interpretable models. The use of nonconvex penalty functions shows advantage in selecting important…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-12 Zemin Zheng , Yingying Fan , Jinchi Lv

Maximum likelihood estimation in nonlinear models can exhibit substantial instability in finite samples when the data provide limited information about certain parameters. Such instability is driven by rare but extreme realizations of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Masamune Iwasawa

In this paper we consider high dimension models based on dependent observations defined through autoregressive processes. For such models we develop an adaptive efficient estimation method via the robust sequential model selection…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-19 Ouerdia Arkoun , Jean-Yves Brua , Serguei Pergamenshchikov

We develop a continuous-time penalized regression framework for the estimation of time-varying coefficients and variable selection when both the response and covariates are It\^o semimartingales with jumps. The coefficient paths are…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-28 Aleksey Kolokolov , Shifan Yu

Explanatory variables in a predictive regression typically exhibit low signal strength and various degrees of persistence. Variable selection in such a context is of great importance. In this paper, we explore the pitfalls and possibilities…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-02-16 Ji Hyung Lee , Zhentao Shi , Zhan Gao

In linear regression, the least squares (LS) estimator has certain optimality properties if the errors are normally distributed. This assumption is often violated in practice, partly caused by data outliers. Robust estimators can cope with…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-01 Sukru Acitas , Peter Filzmoser , Birdal Senoglu

In this paper we consider the trace regression model. Assume that we observe a small set of entries or linear combinations of entries of an unknown matrix $A_0$ corrupted by noise. We propose a new rank penalized estimator of $A_0$. For…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-09-14 Olga Klopp

Regression adjustments are often considered by investigators to improve the estimation efficiency of causal effect in randomized experiments when there exists many pre-experiment covariates. In this paper, we provide conditions that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-25 Hanzhong Liu , Yuehan Yang

Despite their numerous successes, there are many scenarios where adversarial risk metrics do not provide an appropriate measure of robustness. For example, test-time perturbations may occur in a probabilistic manner rather than being…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-08-03 Benjie Wang , Stefan Webb , Tom Rainforth

We consider the nonparametric robust estimation problem for regression models in continuous time with semi-Markov noises. An adaptive model selection procedure is proposed. Under general moment conditions on the noise distribution a sharp…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-03-28 Vlad Barbu , Slim Beltaif , Serguei Pergamenchtchikov

The paper considers the problem of robust estimating a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with dependent disturbances given by a general square integrable semimartingale with unknown distribution. An example of such a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-20 Victor Konev , Serguei Pergamenchtchikov

We study adaptive estimation and inference in ill-posed linear inverse problems defined by conditional moment restrictions. Existing regularized estimators such as Regularized DeepIV (RDIV) require prior knowledge of the smoothness of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-03 Jiyuan Tan , Vasilis Syrgkanis

As an effective nonparametric method, empirical likelihood (EL) is appealing in combining estimating equations flexibly and adaptively for incorporating data information. To select important variables and estimating equations in the sparse…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-02 Jiaqi Li , Liya Fu

Doubly robust (DR) estimation is a crucial technique in causal inference and missing data problems. We propose a novel Propensity score Augmentved Doubly robust (PAD) estimator to enhance the commonly used DR estimator for average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-18 Liangbo Lyu , Molei Liu

Reliability analysis typically relies on deterministic simulators, which yield repeatable outputs for identical inputs. However, many real-world systems display intrinsic randomness, requiring stochastic simulators whose outputs are random…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 A. Pires , M. Moustapha , S. Marelli , B. Sudret

Many of the successes of machine learning are based on minimizing an averaged loss function. However, it is well-known that this paradigm suffers from robustness issues that hinder its applicability in safety-critical domains. These issues…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-09 Alexander Robey , Luiz F. O. Chamon , George J. Pappas , Hamed Hassani

We consider the problem of finding tuned regularized parameter estimators for linear models. We start by showing that three known optimal linear estimators belong to a wider class of estimators that can be formulated as a solution to a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-03 Per Mattsson , Dave Zachariah , Petre Stoica

Penalized estimation methods for diffusion processes and dependent data have recently gained significant attention due to their effectiveness in handling high-dimensional stochastic systems. In this work, we introduce an adaptive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-24 Alessandro De Gregorio , Dario Frisardi , Francesco Iafrate , Stefano Iacus

Gaussian process regression (GPR) model is well-known to be susceptible to outliers. Robust process regression models based on t-process or other heavy-tailed processes have been developed to address the problem. However, due to the nature…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-10 Wang Zhanfeng , Noh Maengseok , Lee Youngjo , Shi Jianqing