Related papers: Metapopulation dynamics of a respiratory disease w…
We consider a metapopulation model of cholera describing explicitly the movement of individuals and contaminated water between locations as well as a simple vaccination mechanism. The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium point…
We study a coupled epidemic-mobility model in which, at each time, individuals move in a network of spatially-distributed regions (sub-populations) according to a Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) and subsequently interact with the local…
From footpaths to flight routes, human mobility networks facilitate the spread of communicable diseases. Control and elimination efforts depend on characterizing these networks in terms of connections and flux rates of individuals between…
We consider the class of SIS epidemic models in which a large population of individuals chooses whether to adopt protection or to remain unprotected as the epidemic evolves. For a susceptible individual, adopting protection reduces the…
The statistics of outbreaks in a model for the propagation of meningococcal diseases is analyzed, taking into account the possibility that the population is fragmented into weakly connected patches. It is shown that, depending on the size…
There is a rich history of models for the interaction of a biological contagion like influenza with the spread of related information such as an influenza vaccination campaign. Recent work on the spread of interacting contagions on networks…
During infectious disease epidemics, pathogen transmission occurs in host populations made up of interacting subpopulations. Using stochastic simulation and analytical approximations, we examine how outbreak sizes in networked populations…
In this paper, we study how interactions between populations impact epidemic spread. We extend the classical SEIR model to include both integration-based disease transmission simulation and population flow. Our model differs from existing…
The Covid-19 pandemic has taken millions of lives, demonstrating the tragedy and disruption of respiratory diseases, and how difficult they can be to manage. However, there is still significant debate in the scientific community as to which…
Host mobility plays a fundamental role in the spatial spread of infectious diseases. Previous theoretical works based on the integration of network theory into the metapopulation framework have shown that the heterogeneities that…
A key scientific challenge during the outbreak of novel infectious diseases is to predict how the course of the epidemic changes under different countermeasures that limit interaction in the population. Most epidemiological models do not…
Prior social contagion models consider the spread of either one contagion at a time on interdependent networks or multiple contagions on single layer networks or under assumptions of competition. We propose a new threshold model for the…
The spread of certain diseases can be promoted, in some cases substantially, by prior infection with another disease. One example is that of HIV, whose immunosuppressant effects significantly increase the chances of infection with other…
Transport across heterogeneous, patchy environments is a ubiquitous phenomenon spanning fields of study including ecological movement, intracellular transport and regions of specialised function in a cell. These regions or patches may be…
The metapopulation network model is effectively used to study the spatial spread of epidemics with individuals mobility. Considering the time-varying nature of individual activity and the preferences for attractive destinations in…
Stochasticity and spatial heterogeneity are of great interest recently in studying the spread of an infectious disease. The presented method solves an inverse problem to discover the effectively decisive topology of a heterogeneous network…
We develop a stochastic two-patch epidemic model with nonlinear recidivism to investigate infectious disease dynamics in heterogeneous populations. Extending a deterministic framework, we introduce stochasticity to account for random…
The dynamics of epidemic spreading is often reduced to the single control parameter $R_0$, whose value, above or below unity, determines the state of the contagion. If, however, the pathogen evolves as it spreads, $R_0$ may change over…
We develop simple models for the global spread of infectious diseases, emphasizing human mobility via air travel and the variation of public health infrastructure from region to region. We derive formulas relating the total and peak number…
We use a multitype continuous time Markov branching process model to describe the dynamics of the spread of parasites of two types that can mutate into each other in a common host population. Instead of using a single virulence…