Related papers: A physics-based algorithm to perform predictions i…
Game Theory concepts have been successfully applied in a wide variety of domains over the past decade. Sports and games are one of the popular areas of game theory application owing to its merits and benefits in solving complex scenarios.…
The Pythagorean formula is one of the most popular ways to measure the true ability of a team. It is very easy to use, estimating a team's winning percentage from the runs they score and allow. This data is readily available on standings…
This paper explores the significant history of professional football and the betting industry, tracing its evolution from clandestine beginnings to a lucrative multi-million-pound enterprise. Initiated by the legalization of gambling in…
Daily fantasy sports (DFS) are weekly or daily online contests where real-game performances of individual players are converted to fantasy points (FPTS). Users select players for their lineup to maximize their FPTS within a set player…
A scoring rule is a function of a probabilistic forecast and a corresponding outcome that is used to evaluate forecast performance. A wide range of scoring rules have been defined over time and there is some debate as to which are the most…
A knowledgeable observer of a game of football (soccer) can make a subjective evaluation of the quality of passes made between players during the game. We investigate the problem of producing an automated system to make the same evaluation…
Based on NFL game data we try to predict the outcome of a play in multiple different ways. An application of this is the following: by plugging in various play options one could determine the best play for a given situation in real time.…
Online fantasy cricket has emerged as large-scale competitive systems in which participants construct virtual teams and compete based on real-world player performances. This massive growth has been accompanied by important questions about…
In this work we develop a new algorithm for rating of teams (or players) in one-on-one games by exploiting the observed difference of the game-points (such as goals), also known as a margin of victory (MOV). Our objective is to obtain the…
This work presents and evaluates the ranking algorithm that has been used by Federation Internationale de Volleyball (FIVB) since 2020. The prominent feature of the FIVB ranking is the use of the probabilistic model, which explicitly…
We study a diagnostic strategy which is based on the anticipation of the diagnostic process by simulation of the dynamical process starting from the initial findings. We show that such a strategy could result in more accurate diagnoses…
We propose an original model for inferring team strengths using a Markov Random Field, which can be used to generate historical estimates of the offensive and defensive strengths of a team over time. This model was designed to be applied to…
In this paper, we present a novel sequential team selection model in soccer. Specifically, we model the stochastic process of player injury and unavailability using player-specific information learned from real-world soccer data.…
Converting betting odds into accurate outcome probabilities is a fundamental challenge in order to use betting odds as a benchmark for sports forecasting and market efficiency analysis. In this study, we propose two methods to overcome the…
Three state-of-the-art statistical ranking methods for forecasting football matches are combined with several other predictors in a hybrid machine learning model. Namely an ability estimate for every team based on historic matches; an…
This study developed a new explainable artificial intelligence algorithm called PassAI, which classifies successful or failed passes in a soccer game and explains its rationale using both tracking and passer's seasonal stats information.…
When $n$ teams play in a football league with home and away matches against every opponent there are $M = n \cdot (n-1)$ matches. There are 3 possible match results: a victory is awarded 3 points, a draw 1 point and 0 points for a defeat.…
Performance prediction or forecasting sporting outcomes involves a great deal of insight into the particular area one is dealing with, and a considerable amount of intuition about the factors that bear on such outcomes and performances. The…
The English Premier League is well-known for being not only one of the most popular professional sports leagues in the world, but also one of the toughest competitions to predict. The first purpose of this research was to verify the…
In this article we revise the football's performance score called PlayeRank, designed and evaluated by Pappalardo et al.\ in 2019. First, we analyze the weights extracted from the Linear Support Vector Machine (SVM) that solves the…