Related papers: From Epidemic to Pandemic Modelling
We propose a new model that describes the dynamics of epidemic spreading on connected graphs. Our model consists in a PDE-ODE system where at each vertex of the graph we have a standard SIR model and connexions between vertices are given by…
We investigate the effects of modular and temporal connectivity patterns on epidemic spreading. To this end, we introduce and analytically characterise a model of time-varying networks with tunable modularity. Within this framework, we…
In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent $p-$coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…
This is work in progress. We make it accessible hoping that people might find the idea useful. We propose a discrete, recursive 5-compartment model for the spread of epidemics, which we call {\em SEPIR-model}. Under mild assumptions which…
Epidemic models are useful tools in the fight against infectious diseases, as they allow policy makers to test and compare various strategies to limit disease transmission while mitigating collateral damage on the economy. Epidemic models…
Network-based models of epidemic spread have become increasingly popular in recent decades. Despite a rich foundation of such models, few low-dimensional systems for modeling SIS-type diseases have been proposed that manage to capture the…
Mathematical modeling of epidemic propagation on networks is extended to hypergraphs in order to account for both the community structure and the nonlinear dependence of the infection pressure on the number of infected neighbours. The exact…
Understanding the dynamics of the spread of diseases within populations is critical for effective public health interventions. We extend the classical SIR model by incorporating additional complexities such as the introduction of a cure and…
Metapopulation models provide the theoretical framework for describing disease spread between different populations connected by a network. In particular, these models are at the basis of most simulations of pandemic spread. They are…
Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…
We consider a continuous-time Markov chain model of SIR disease dynamics with two levels of mixing. For this so-called stochastic households model, we provide two methods for inferring the model parameters---governing within-household…
Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is…
The COVID-19 pandemic has witnessed the role of online social networks (OSNs) in the spread of infectious diseases. The rise in severity of the epidemic augments the need for proper guidelines, but also promotes the propagation of fake…
The SIR model is one of the most prototypical compartmental models in epidemiology. Generalizing this ordinary differential equation (ODE) framework into a spatially distributed partial differential equation (PDE) model is a considerable…
We study a multilayer SIR model with two levels of mixing, namely a global level which is uniformly mixing, and a local level with two layers distinguishing household and workplace contacts, respectively. We establish the large population…
We show how the standard field theoretical language based on creation and annihilation operators may be used for a straightforward derivation of closed master equations describing the population dynamics of multivariate stochastic epidemic…
The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is the cornerstone of epidemiological models. However, this specification depends on two parameters only, which implies a lack of flexibility and the difficulty to replicate the volatile…
Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a…
This work is concerned with epidemiological models defined on networks, which highlight the prominent role of the social contact network of a given population in the spread of infectious diseases. In particular, we address the modelling and…
Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…