Related papers: Stochastic modeling of stratospheric temperature
Trends in terrestrial temperature variability are perhaps more relevant for species viability than trends in mean temperature. In this paper, we develop methodology for estimating such trends using multi-resolution climate data from polar…
In this work, we extend the data-driven It\^{o} stochastic differential equation (SDE) framework for the pathwise assessment of short-term forecast errors to account for the time-dependent upper bound that naturally constrains the…
Over the last few decades, climate scientists have devoted much effort to the development of large numerical models of the atmosphere and the ocean. While there is no question that such models provide important and useful information on…
We analyze the effect of temperature on the yielding transition of amorphous solids using different coarse-grained model approaches. On one hand we use an elasto-plastic model, with temperature introduced in the form of an Arrhenius…
Spatio-temporal modelling is an increasingly popular topic in Statistics. Our paper contributes to this line of research by developing the theory, simulation and inference for a spatio-temporal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We conduct…
From a viewpoint of stochastic thermodynamics, we derive equations that describe the collective dynamics near the order-disorder transition in the globally coupled XY model and near the synchronization-desynchronization transition in the…
The correspondence principle is investigated in the framework of deterministic predictions for individual systems. Exact analytical results are obtained for the quantum and the Liouvillian dynamics of a nonlinear oscillator coupled to a…
Most operational climate services providers base their seasonal predictions on initialised general circulation models (GCMs) or statistical techniques that fit past observations. GCMs require substantial computational resources, which…
The troposphere is one of the atmospheric layers where most weather phenomena occur. Temperature variations in the troposphere, especially at 500 hPa, a typical level of the middle troposphere, are significant indicators of future weather…
Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…
The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events since the beginning of the 21st century has led to the development of new methods to attribute extreme events to anthropogenic climate change. The way in which the extreme event is defined…
Understanding local currents in the North Atlantic region of the ocean is a key part of modelling heat transfer and global climate patterns. Satellites provide a surface signature of the temperature of the ocean with a high horizontal…
Atmospheric trace-gas inversion refers to any technique used to predict spatial and temporal fluxes using mole-fraction measurements and atmospheric simulations obtained from computer models. Studies to date are most often of a…
Accurate forecasts of the impact of spatial weather and pan-European socio-economic and political risks on hourly electricity demand for the mid-term horizon are crucial for strategic decision-making amidst the inherent uncertainty. Most…
Macroscopic models which distinguish the longitudinal and transverse temperatures can provide improved descriptions of the microscopic shock structures as revealed by molecular dynamics simulations. Additionally, we can include three…
Multistage stochastic programming provides a modeling framework for sequential decision-making problems that involve uncertainty. One typically overlooked aspect of this methodology is how uncertainty is incorporated into modeling.…
We demonstrate an alternative correlation between the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global temperature variation to that shown by McLean et al. [2009]. We show 50% of the variation in RATPAC-A tropospheric temperature (and 54%…
Temperature uncertainty models for land and sea surfaces can be developed based on statistical methods. In this paper, we developed a novel time series temperature uncertainty model which is the Auto-regressive Moving Average (ARMA)(1, 1)…
Previous studies have identified an association between near-surface temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere and weak stratospheric polar westerlies. Large regions in northern Asia, Europe and North America have been found to cool…
We consider a time-inhomogeneous diffusion process able to describe the dynamics of infected people in a susceptible-infectious epidemic model in which the transmission intensity function is time-dependent. Such a model is well suited to…