Related papers: Epidemiological theory of virus variants
This paper studies a distributed continuous-time bi-virus model in which two competing viruses spread over a network consisting of multiple groups of individuals. Limiting behaviors of the network are characterized by analyzing the…
We investigate the long-time dynamics of a SIR epidemic model in the case of a population of pathogens infecting a homogeneous host population. The pathogen population is structured by a genotypic variable. When the initial mass of the…
Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate…
Time evolution of number of species (genera, families, and others), population of them, and size distribution of present ones and life times are studied in terms of a new model, where population of each genetic taxon increases by a (random)…
The theory of life history evolution provides a powerful framework to understand the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens in both epidemic and endemic situations. This framework, however, relies on the assumption that pathogen populations are…
Forecasting the change in the distribution of viral variants is crucial for therapeutic design and disease surveillance. This task poses significant modeling challenges due to the sharp differences in virus distributions across…
To model the evolution of diseases with extended latency periods and the presence of asymptomatic patients like COVID-19, we define a simple discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model. We include both latent periods as well as the…
Network epidemiology has become a core framework for investigating the role of human contact patterns in the spreading of infectious diseases. In network epidemiology represents the contact structure as a network of nodes (individuals)…
We present a unified framework ensuring well posedness and providing stability estimates to a class of Initial Boundary Value Problems for renewal equations comprising a variety of biological or epidemiological models. This versatility is…
We study an abstract model for the co-evolution between mutating viruses and the adaptive immune system. In sequence space, these two populations are localized around transiently dominant strains. Delocalization or error thresholds exhibit…
The focus of a survival study is partly on the distribution of survival times, and partly on the health or quality of life of patients while they live. Health varies over time, and survival is the most basic aspect of health, so the two…
This paper studies a discrete-time time-varying multi-layer networked SIWS (susceptible-infected-water-susceptible) model with multiple resources under both single-virus and competing multi-virus settings. Besides the human-to-human…
Over the past two decades, complex network theory provided the ideal framework for investigating the intimate relationships between the topological properties characterizing the wiring of connections among a system's unitary components and…
This study extends the SIS epidemic model for single virus propagation over an arbitrary graph to an SI1SI2S epidemic model of two exclusive, competitive viruses over a two-layer network with generic structure, where network layers…
If two species exhibit different nonlinear responses to a single shared resource, and if each species modifies the resource dynamics such that this favors its competitor, they may stably coexist. This coexistence mechanism, known as…
Recent work by Erik Volz [arXiv:0705.2092] has shown how to calculate the growth and eventual decay of an SIR epidemic on a static random network, assuming infection and recovery each happen at constant rates. This calculation allows us to…
We propose a new dynamic SIR model that, in contrast with the available model on time scales, is biological relevant. For the new SIR model we obtain an explicit solution, we prove the asymptotic stability of the extinction and disease-free…
A physics-informed neural network (PINN) embedded with the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model is devised to understand the temporal evolution dynamics of infectious diseases. Firstly, the effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated…
We propose a new model that describes the dynamics of epidemic spreading on connected graphs. Our model consists in a PDE-ODE system where at each vertex of the graph we have a standard SIR model and connexions between vertices are given by…
In this work, we discuss the SIR epidemiological model and different variations of it applied to the propagation of the COVID-19 pandemia; we employ the data of the state of Guanajuato and of Mexico. We present some considerations that can…