Related papers: Bayesian Inference in High-Dimensional Time-Series…
We propose the Gaussian-Linear Hidden Markov model (GLHMM), a generalisation of different types of HMMs commonly used in neuroscience. In short, the GLHMM is a general framework where linear regression is used to flexibly parameterise the…
The complexity and heterogeneity of data in many real-world applications pose significant challenges for traditional machine learning and signal processing techniques. For instance, in medicine, effective analysis of diverse physiological…
In sequence learning tasks such as language modelling, Recurrent Neural Networks must learn relationships between input features separated by time. State of the art models such as LSTM and Transformer are trained by backpropagation of…
Causal inference from observational data following the restricted structural causal models (SCM) framework hinges largely on the asymmetry between cause and effect from the data generating mechanisms, such as non-Gaussianity or…
The latent position model (LPM) is a popular method used in network data analysis where nodes are assumed to be positioned in a $p$-dimensional latent space. The latent shrinkage position model (LSPM) is an extension of the LPM which…
In this paper, we explore the class of the Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM), a flexible extension of the popular Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that allows the underlying stochastic process to be a semi-Markov chain. HSMMs are typically used less…
State space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modeling complex time series via a latent stochastic process. Inference for nonlinear, non-Gaussian SSMs is often tackled with particle methods that do not scale well to long time…
We introduce a flexible, scalable Bayesian inference framework for nonlinear dynamical systems characterised by distinct and hierarchical variability at the individual, group, and population levels. Our model class is a generalisation of…
Causal inference from observational data following the restricted structural causal model (SCM) framework hinges largely on the asymmetry between cause and effect from the data generating mechanisms, such as non-Gaussianity or nonlinearity.…
The Multi-Output Gaussian Process is is a popular tool for modelling data from multiple sources. A typical choice to build a covariance function for a MOGP is the Linear Model of Coregionalization (LMC) which parametrically models the…
Joint models (JMs) for longitudinal and time-to-event data are an important class of biostatistical models in health and medical research. When the study population consists of heterogeneous subgroups, the standard JM may be inadequate and…
Network models are increasingly vital in psychometrics for analyzing relational data, which are often accompanied by high-dimensional node attributes. Joint latent space models (JLSM) provide an elegant framework for integrating these data…
State-space models (SSMs) offer a powerful framework for dynamical system analysis, wherein the temporal dynamics of the system are assumed to be captured through the evolution of the latent states, which govern the values of the…
The Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM) provides a flexible approach for non-linear dimensionality reduction that has been widely applied. However, the current approach for training GP-LVMs is based on maximum likelihood, where…
Systems with stochastic time delay between the input and output present a number of unique challenges. Time domain noise leads to irregular alignments, obfuscates relationships and attenuates inferred coefficients. To handle these…
Forecasting in the real world requires integrating structured time-series data with unstructured textual information, but existing methods are architecturally limited by fixed input/output horizons and are unable to model or quantify…
Temporally indexed data are essential in a wide range of fields and of interest to machine learning researchers. Time series data, however, are often scarce or highly sensitive, which precludes the sharing of data between researchers and…
Various studies that address the compressed sensing problem with Multiple Measurement Vectors (MMVs) have been recently carried. These studies assume the vectors of the different channels to be jointly sparse. In this paper, we relax this…
Classification of sequence data is the topic of interest for dynamic Bayesian models and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). While the former can explicitly model the temporal dependencies between class variables, the latter have a capability…
Traffic forecasting represents a crucial problem within intelligent transportation systems. In recent research, Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as a promising method, but their intrinsic design, tailored primarily for sequential…