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We introduce a solution concept for extensive-form games of incomplete information in which players need not assign likelihoods to what they do not know about the game. This is embedded in a model in which players can hold multiple priors.…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-09-03 Karl Schlag , Andriy Zapechelnyuk

We develop a model of abduction in abstract argumentation, where changes to an argumentation framework act as hypotheses to explain the support of an observation. We present dialogical proof theories for the main decision problems (i.e.,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-07-16 Richard Booth , Dov Gabbay , Souhila Kaci , Tjitze Rienstra , Leendert van der Torre

We study online Bayesian persuasion problems in which an informed sender repeatedly faces a receiver with the goal of influencing their behavior through the provision of payoff-relevant information. Previous works assume that the sender has…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Francesco Bacchiocchi , Matteo Bollini , Matteo Castiglioni , Alberto Marchesi , Nicola Gatti

Despite recent progress on conversational systems, they still do not perform smoothly and coherently when faced with ambiguous requests. When questions are unclear, conversational systems should have the ability to ask clarifying questions,…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-08-10 Negar Arabzadeh , Mahsa Seifikar , Charles L. A. Clarke

We propose a model of causal persuasion, in which a sender selectively discloses a set of variables together with their true joint distribution and proposes a subjective causal model that binds them. A receiver is persuaded by this model…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-05-04 Anastasia Burkovskaya , Egor Starkov

We introduce the concepts of Bayesian lens, characterizing the bidirectional structure of exact Bayesian inference, and statistical game, formalizing the optimization objectives of approximate inference problems. We prove that Bayesian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-10 Toby St. Clere Smithe

This paper proposes two kinds of fuzzy abductive inference in the framework of fuzzy rule base. The abductive inference processes described here depend on the semantic of the rule. We distinguish two classes of interpretation of a fuzzy…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Nedra Mellouli , Bernadette Bouchon-Meunier

In their 1993 paper 'Forecasting point and continuous processes: Prequential analysis' in Test, Vovk put forward a game-theoretic definition of the Poisson process. A key assumption therein is that the rate of the Poisson process is known…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-02 Alexander Erreygers

Transparency, user trust, and human comprehension are popular ethical motivations for interpretable machine learning. In support of these goals, researchers evaluate model explanation performance using humans and real world applications.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-10-31 Bernease Herman

Probabilistic applicative bisimulation is a recently introduced coinductive methodology for program equivalence in a probabilistic, higher-order, setting. In this paper, the technique is applied to a typed, call-by-value, lambda-calculus.…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2014-01-30 Raphaelle Crubille , Ugo Dal Lago

This work contains the mathematical exploration of a few prototypical games in which central concepts from statistics and probability theory naturally emerge. The first two kinds of games are termed Fisher and Bayesian games, which are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-27 Jozsef Konczer

In decision-making problems under uncertainty, probabilistic constraints are a valuable tool to express safety of decisions. They result from taking the probability measure of a given set of random inequalities depending on the decision…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-02-09 Yassine Laguel , Wim van Ackooij , Jérôme Malick , Guilherme Ramalho

We propose a novel training regime termed counterfactual training that leverages counterfactual explanations to increase the explanatory capacity of models. Counterfactual explanations have emerged as a popular post-hoc explanation method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Patrick Altmeyer , Aleksander Buszydlik , Arie van Deursen , Cynthia C. S. Liem

Deception is a technique to mislead human or computer systems by manipulating beliefs and information. For the applications of cyber deception, non-cooperative games become a natural choice of models to capture the adversarial interactions…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2019-02-12 Tao Zhang , Linan Huang , Jeffrey Pawlick , Quanyan Zhu

Bayesian inference is often utilized for uncertainty quantification tasks. A recent analysis by Xu and Raginsky 2022 rigorously decomposed the predictive uncertainty in Bayesian inference into two uncertainties, called aleatoric and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-25 Futoshi Futami , Tomoharu Iwata

As machine learning models are increasingly used in critical decision-making settings (e.g., healthcare, finance), there has been a growing emphasis on developing methods to explain model predictions. Such \textit{explanations} are used to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-29 Dylan Slack , Sophie Hilgard , Sameer Singh , Himabindu Lakkaraju

This paper proposes a careful separation between an entity's epistemic system and their decision system. Crucially, Bayesian counterfactuals are estimated by the epistemic system; not by the decision system. Based on this remark, I prove…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-08-11 Lê Nguyên Hoang

Both uncertainty estimation and interpretability are important factors for trustworthy machine learning systems. However, there is little work at the intersection of these two areas. We address this gap by proposing a novel method for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-19 Javier Antorán , Umang Bhatt , Tameem Adel , Adrian Weller , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Bayesian inference provides an attractive online-learning framework to analyze sequential data, and offers generalization guarantees which hold even with model mismatch and adversaries. Unfortunately, exact Bayesian inference is rarely…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-03 Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif , Pierre Alquier , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan

Bayesian statistics has gained popularity in psychological research due to its intuitive uncertainty quantification and convenient information-updating rules. In many applications, however, prior distributions are introduced merely as…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Yang Liu , Jonathan P. Williams , Jan Hannig
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