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The Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) represent a versatile class of data-driven nonlinear dynamical system models. However, the presence of numerous latent variables in GPSSM incurs unresolved issues for existing variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-23 Zhidi Lin , Yiyong Sun , Feng Yin , Alexandre Hoang Thiéry

The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) has achieved great successes in data assimilation in atmospheric and oceanic sciences, but its failure in convergence to the right filtering distribution precludes its use for uncertainty quantification. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-13 Peiyi Zhang , Qifan Song , Faming Liang

Filtering - the task of estimating the conditional distribution for states of a dynamical system given partial and noisy observations - is important in many areas of science and engineering, including weather and climate prediction.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Eviatar Bach , Ricardo Baptista , Enoch Luk , Andrew Stuart

This paper investigates an approximation scheme of the optimal nonlinear Bayesian filter based on the Gaussian mixture representation of the state probability distribution function. The resulting filter is similar to the particle filter,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-30 Ibrahim Hoteit , Xiaodong Luo , Dinh-Tuan Pham

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a Monte Carlo approximation of the Kalman filter for high dimensional linear Gaussian state space models. EnKF methods have also been developed for parameter inference of static Bayesian models with a…

Data assimilation is a method of uncertainty quantification to estimate the hidden true state by updating the prediction owing to model dynamics with observation data. As a prediction model, we consider a class of nonlinear dynamical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-05 Kota Takeda , Takashi Sakajo

Many real-world problems require one to estimate parameters of interest, in a Bayesian framework, from data that are collected sequentially in time. Conventional methods for sampling from posterior distributions, such as {Markov Chain Monte…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-25 Jiangqi Wu , Linjie Wen , Peter L Green , Jinglai Li , Simon Maskell

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a Monte Carlo based implementation of the Kalman filter (KF) for extremely high-dimensional, possibly nonlinear and non-Gaussian state estimation problems. Its ability to handle state dimensions in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-12 Michael Roth , Gustaf Hendeby , Carsten Fritsche , Fredrik Gustafsson

Heavy tails is a common feature of filtering distributions that results from the nonlinear dynamical and observation processes as well as the uncertainty from physical sensors. In these settings, the Kalman filter and its ensemble version -…

Computation · Statistics 2023-10-16 Mathieu Le Provost , Ricardo Baptista , Jeff D. Eldredge , Youssef Marzouk

This study considers the data assimilation problem in coupled systems, which consists of two components (sub-systems) interacting with each other through certain coupling terms. A straightforward way to tackle the assimilation problem in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-06-22 Xiaodong Luo , Ibrahim Hoteit

Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in state estimation and parameter estimation for the dynamic system where observational data is obtained sequentially in time. To reduce uncertainty and accelerate posterior inference, a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-11-14 Yuming Ba , Lijian Jiang , Na Ou

The sample covariance matrix of a random vector is a good estimate of the true covariance matrix if the sample size is much larger than the length of the vector. In high-dimensional problems, this condition is never met. As a result, in…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-11-12 Michael Tsyrulnikov , Arseniy Sotskiy

An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF, the predictor) is used make a large change in the state, followed by a Particle Filer (PF, the corrector) which assigns importance weights to describe non-Gaussian distribution. The weights are obtained by…

Computation · Statistics 2009-07-20 Jan Mandel , Jonathan D. Beezley

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is an efficient algorithm for many data assimilation problems. In certain circumstances, however, divergence of the EnKF might be spotted. In previous studies, the authors proposed an…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-08-19 Xiaodong Luo , Ibrahim Hoteit

Data assimilation (DA) for compressible flows with shocks is challenging because many classical DA methods generate spurious oscillations and nonphysical features near uncertain shocks. We focus here on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). We…

Contemporary data assimilation often involves more than a million prediction variables. Ensemble Kalman filters (EnKF) have been developed by geoscientists. They are successful indispensable tools in science and engineering, because they…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-26 Andrew J. Majda , Xin T. Tong

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is widely used for nonlinear and high-dimensional state estimation because it replaces complex covariance propagation with simple ensemble statistics. However, conventional EnKF implementations can become…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-21 Shida Jiang , Shengyu Tao , Zihe Liu , Scott Moura

The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is a widely used method for data assimilation in high-dimensional systems, with an ensemble update step equivalent to an empirical version of the Matheron update popular in Gaussian process regression -- a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-19 Dan MacKinlay

In the process of reproducing the state dynamics of parameter dependent distributed systems, data from physical measurements can be incorporated into the mathematical model to reduce the parameter uncertainty and, consequently, improve the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-10-06 Francesco A. B. Silva , Cecilia Pagliantini , Martin Grepl , Karen Veroy

We propose a new type of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), which uses the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) for covariance estimation from a very small ensemble with automatic tapering, and for a fast computation of the analysis ensemble by…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-08-01 Jan Mandel , Jonathan D. Beezley , Volodymyr Y. Kondratenko