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Related papers: PAC Prediction Sets Under Covariate Shift

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Machine learning classification tasks often benefit from predicting a set of possible labels with confidence scores to capture uncertainty. However, existing methods struggle with the high-dimensional nature of the data and the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

We propose an algorithm combining calibrated prediction and generalization bounds from learning theory to construct confidence sets for deep neural networks with PAC guarantees---i.e., the confidence set for a given input contains the true…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-18 Sangdon Park , Osbert Bastani , Nikolai Matni , Insup Lee

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to assess prediction quality of a machine learning model. In the case of Extreme Learning Machines (ELM), most methods proposed in the literature make strong assumptions on the data, ignore the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-04 Fabian Guignard , Federico Amato , Mikhail Kanevski

A reliable representation of uncertainty is essential for the application of modern machine learning methods in safety-critical settings. In this regard, the use of credal sets (i.e., convex sets of probability distributions) has recently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Paul Hofman , Timo Löhr , Maximilian Muschalik , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

A unified framework for learning under covariate shift is presented, in which a constrained density-ratio network approximates the Radon-Nikodym derivative $r^\star = dP/dQ$ and feeds an anytime PAC-Bayes generalization certificate. A…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Paulo Akira F. Enabe

When facing uncertainty, decision-makers want predictions they can trust. A machine learning provider can convey confidence to decision-makers by guaranteeing their predictions are distribution calibrated -- amongst the inputs that receive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-14 Shengjia Zhao , Michael P. Kim , Roshni Sahoo , Tengyu Ma , Stefano Ermon

Effective quantification of uncertainty is an essential and still missing step towards a greater adoption of deep-learning approaches in different applications, including mission-critical ones. In particular, investigations on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-14 Marco Forgione , Dario Piga

Precision and Recall are fundamental metrics in machine learning tasks where both accurate predictions and comprehensive coverage are essential, such as in multi-label learning, language generation, medical studies, and recommender systems.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Lee Cohen , Yishay Mansour , Shay Moran , Han Shao

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in statistical methods that exhibit robust performance under distribution changes between training and test data. While most of the related research focuses on point predictions with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-18 Alexander Henzi , Xinwei Shen , Michael Law , Peter Bühlmann

The discovery of causal relationships is a foundational problem in artificial intelligence, statistics, epidemiology, economics, and beyond. While elegant theories exist for accurate causal discovery given infinite data, real-world…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-28 Mian Wei , Somesh Jha , David Page

Anomaly detection is essential for preventing hazardous outcomes for safety-critical applications like autonomous driving. Given their safety-criticality, these applications benefit from provable bounds on various errors in anomaly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Shuo Li , Xiayan Ji , Edgar Dobriban , Oleg Sokolsky , Insup Lee

Reachability analysis evaluates system safety, by identifying the set of states a system may evolve within over a finite time horizon. In contrast to model-based reachability analysis, data-driven reachability analysis estimates reachable…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-06 Elizabeth Dietrich , Hanna Krasowski , Murat Arcak

In machine learning, Domain Adaptation (DA) arises when the distribution gen- erating the test (target) data differs from the one generating the learning (source) data. It is well known that DA is an hard task even under strong assumptions,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-12-12 Pascal Germain , Amaury Habrard , François Laviolette , Emilie Morvant

Uncertainty estimation is pivotal in machine learning, especially for classification tasks, as it improves the robustness and reliability of models. We introduce a novel `Epistemic Wrapping' methodology aimed at improving uncertainty…

A significant obstacle in the development of robust machine learning models is covariate shift, a form of distribution shift that occurs when the input distributions of the training and test sets differ while the conditional label…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-17 Nilesh Tripuraneni , Ben Adlam , Jeffrey Pennington

In most real-world applications of artificial intelligence, the distributions of the data and the goals of the learners tend to change over time. The Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning framework, which underpins most machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-13 Yuxin Bai , Cecelia Shuai , Ashwin De Silva , Siyu Yu , Pratik Chaudhari , Joshua T. Vogelstein

Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to a specific operating point,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Jiri Navratil , Benjamin Elder , Matthew Arnold , Soumya Ghosh , Prasanna Sattigeri

Many existing approaches to generalizing statistical inference amidst distribution shift operate under the covariate shift assumption, which posits that the conditional distribution of unobserved variables given observable ones is invariant…

Applications · Statistics 2024-12-13 Ying Jin , Naoki Egami , Dominik Rothenhäusler

We show that in the context of classification the property of source and target distributions to be related by covariate shift may be lost if the information content captured in the covariates is reduced, for instance by dropping components…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-16 Dirk Tasche

Making predictions that are fair with regard to protected group membership (race, gender, age, etc.) has become an important requirement for classification algorithms. Existing techniques derive a fair model from sampled labeled data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-09 Ashkan Rezaei , Anqi Liu , Omid Memarrast , Brian Ziebart