Related papers: Embracing Uncertainty in "Small Data" Problems: Es…
The distribution of seismic moment is of capital interest to evaluate earthquake hazard, in particular regarding the most extreme events. We make use of likelihood-ratio tests to compare the simple Gutenberg-Richter power-law distribution…
High accuracy complex computer models, or simulators, require large resources in time and memory to produce realistic results. Statistical emulators are computationally cheap approximations of such simulators. They can be built to replace…
Earthquakes are a major threat to nations worldwide. Earthquake detection is an important scientific challenge, not only for its social impacts, but also since it reflects the actual degree of understanding of the physical processes…
After Aceh's quake many earthquakes have struck Indonesia alternately and even other disasters have been a threat for every citizen in this country. Actually an everyday occurrence on earth and more than 3 million earthquakes occur every…
We present a Bayesian inversion-based digital twin that employs acoustic pressure data from seafloor sensors, along with 3D coupled acoustic-gravity wave equations, to infer earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion in real time and…
Despite dissimilar slip rates, slow earthquakes are faulting as ordinary earthquakes are. It is therefore physically natural that slow earthquakes also cause postseismic motions similarly to ordinary earthquakes, even though coseismic and…
One of the key elements of probabilistic seismic risk assessment studies is the fragility curve, which represents the conditional probability of failure of a mechanical structure for a given scalar measure derived from seismic ground…
Short-term earthquake clustering is one of the most important features of seismicity. Clusters are identified using various techniques, generally deterministic and based on spatio-temporal windowing. Conversely, the leading rail in…
An efficient method for inferring Manning's $n$ coefficients using water surface elevation data was presented in Sraj et al. (2014) focusing on a test case based on data collected during the $T\=ohoku$ earthquake and tsunami. Polynomial…
The impact of including postcursors in the null hypothesis test is discussed. Unequal prediction probabilities can be included in the null hypothesis test using a generalization of the central limit theorem. A test for determining the…
We propose a novel method for analyzing precursory seismic data before an earthquake that treats them as a Markov process and distinguishes the background noise from real fluctuations due to an earthquake. A short time (on the order of…
We present a methodology for quantifying seismic velocity and pore pressure uncertainty that incorporates information regarding the geological history of a basin, rock physics, well log, drilling and seismic data. In particular, our…
Predicting discrete events in time and space has many scientific applications, such as predicting hazardous earthquakes and outbreaks of infectious diseases. History-dependent spatio-temporal Hawkes processes are often used to…
Accurate damage prediction is crucial for disaster preparedness and response strategies, particularly given the frequent earthquakes in Turkey. Utilizing datasets on earthquake data, infrastructural quality metrics, and contemporary…
Seismicity catalogs are larger than ever due to an explosion of techniques for enhanced earthquake detection and an abundance of high-quality datasets. Bayesian inference is an appealing framework for locating earthquakes due to its ability…
The present study is devoted to the problem of tsunami wave generation. The main goal of this work is two-fold. First of all, we propose a simple and computationally inexpensive model for the description of the sea bed displacement during…
Benchmarking estimation and its risk evaluation is a practically important issue in small area estimation. While Bayesian methods have been widely adopted in small area estimation, existing benchmarking approaches are often ad-hoc, such as…
The rapid proliferation of deep-learning-based detection and association methods has greatly expanded automatically generated earthquake catalogs, but has also introduced false detections, mis-associated arrivals, and poorly constrained…
Aftershocks of the 2012 Off-Coast of Sumatra Earthquake Sequence exhibit a complex and diffuse spatial distribution. The first-order complexity in aftershock distribution is clear and well beyond the influence of typical earthquake location…
Due to the catastrophic consequences of tsunamis, early warnings need to be issued quickly in order to mitigate the hazard. Additionally, there is a need to represent the uncertainty in the predictions of tsunami characteristics…