Related papers: Large Deviation Asymptotics and Bayesian Posterior…
We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…
In the Bayesian approach, the a priori knowledge about the input of a mathematical model is described via a probability measure. The joint distribution of the unknown input and the data is then conditioned, using Bayes' formula, giving rise…
Frequentist-style large-sample properties of Bayesian posterior distributions, such as consistency and convergence rates, are important considerations in nonparametric problems. In this paper we give an analysis of Bayesian asymptotics…
In recent years, the literature in the area of Bayesian asymptotics has been rapidly growing. It is increasingly important to understand the concept of posterior consistency and validate specific Bayesian methods, in terms of consistency of…
We consider the asymptotic behavior of posterior distributions and Bayes estimators based on observations which are required to be neither independent nor identically distributed. We give general results on the rate of convergence of the…
In a general class of Bayesian nonparametric models, we prove that the posterior distribution can be asymptotically approximated by a Gaussian process. Our results apply to nonparametric exponential family that contains both Gaussian and…
The vast majority of the literature on learning dynamical systems or stochastic processes from time series has focused on stable or ergodic systems, for both Bayesian and frequentist inference procedures. However, most real-world systems…
For ill-posed inverse problems, a regularised solution can be interpreted as a mode of the posterior distribution in a Bayesian framework. This framework enriches the set the solutions, as other posterior estimates can be used as a solution…
In this article we investigate consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood and the posterior distribution of the parameters in the context of state space stochastic differential equations (SDEs). We then extend our…
Parameter inference is a fundamental problem in data-driven modeling. Given observed data that is believed to be a realization of some parameterized model, the aim is to find parameter values that are able to explain the observed data. In…
In this paper we consider a Bayesian framework for making inferences about dynamical systems from ergodic observations. The proposed Bayesian procedure is based on the Gibbs posterior, a decision theoretic generalization of standard…
A key challenge for modern Bayesian statistics is how to perform scalable inference of posterior distributions. To address this challenge, variational Bayes (VB) methods have emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain…
Uncovering genuine relationships between a response variable of interest and a large collection of covariates is a fundamental and practically important problem. In the context of Gaussian linear models, both the Bayesian and non-Bayesian…
Gaussian process models typically contain finite dimensional parameters in the covariance function that need to be estimated from the data. We study the Bayesian fixed-domain asymptotics for the covariance parameters in a universal kriging…
Much is now known about the consistency of Bayesian updating on infinite-dimensional parameter spaces with independent or Markovian data. Necessary conditions for consistency include the prior putting enough weight on the correct…
We formulate, and present a numerical method for solving, an inverse problem for inferring parameters of a deterministic model from stochastic observational data (quantities of interest). The solution, given as a probability measure, is…
This paper explores large sample properties of the two-parameter $(\alpha,\theta)$ Poisson--Dirichlet Process in two contexts. In a Bayesian context of estimating an unknown probability measure, viewing this process as a natural extension…
In this paper, we aim to study the asymptotic behavior for multi-scale McKean-Vlasov stochastic dynamical systems. Firstly, we obtain a central limit type theorem, i.e, the deviation between the slow component $X^{\varepsilon}$ and the…
Approximate Bayesian computation allows for statistical analysis in models with intractable likelihoods. In this paper we consider the asymptotic behaviour of the posterior distribution obtained by this method. We give general results on…
In this article, we investigate posterior convergence in nonparametric regression models where the unknown regression function is modeled by some appropriate stochastic process. In this regard, we consider two setups. The first setup is…