Related papers: Large Deviation Asymptotics and Bayesian Posterior…

We present a continuation method that entails generating a sequence of transition probability density functions from the prior to the posterior in the context of Bayesian inference for parameter estimation problems. The characterization of…

We study the asymptotic behaviour of solutions of Forward Backward Stochastic Differential Equations in the coupled case, when the diffusion coefficient of the forward equation is multiplicatively perturbed by a small parameter that…

Bayesian paradigm takes advantage of well fitting complicated survival models and feasible computing in survival analysis owing to the superiority in tackling the complex censoring scheme, compared with the frequentist paradigm. In this…

We are concerned with high-dimensional coupled FBSDE systems approximated by the deep BSDE method of Han et al. (2018). It was shown by Han and Long (2020) that the errors induced by the deep BSDE method admit a posteriori estimate…

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

We study the asymptotic consistency properties of $\alpha$-R\'enyi approximate posteriors, a class of variational Bayesian methods that approximate an intractable Bayesian posterior with a member of a tractable family of distributions, the…

We study the asymptotics of large, moderate and normal deviations for the connected components of the sparse random graph by the method of stochastic processes. We obtain the logarithmic asymptotics of large deviations of the joint…

Sampling from the posterior is a key technical problem in Bayesian statistics. Rigorous guarantees are difficult to obtain for Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms of common use. In this paper, we study an alternative class of algorithms…

Variational inference is a general framework to obtain approximations to the posterior distribution in a Bayesian context. In essence, variational inference entails an optimization over a given family of probability distributions to choose…

This paper considers data-driven chance-constrained stochastic optimization problems in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian posteriors afford a principled mechanism to incorporate data and prior knowledge into stochastic optimization problems.…

For finite size Markov chains, the Donsker-Varadhan theory fully describes the large deviations of the time averaged empirical measure. We are interested in the extension of the Donsker-Varadhan theory for a large size non-equilibrium…

Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

We propose a systematic method to derive the asymptotic behaviour of the persistence distribution, for a large class of stochastic processes described by a general Fokker-Planck equation in one dimension. Theoretical predictions are…

Density estimation represents one of the most successful applications of Bayesian nonparametrics. In particular, Dirichlet process mixtures of normals are the gold standard for density estimation and their asymptotic properties have been…

Markov processes with stochastic resetting towards the origin generically converge towards non-equilibrium steady-states. Long dynamical trajectories can be thus analyzed via the large deviations at Level 2.5 for the joint probability of…

The martingale posterior framework is a generalization of Bayesian inference where one elicits a sequence of one-step ahead predictive densities instead of the likelihood and prior. Posterior sampling then involves the imputation of unseen…

We investigate the asymptotic behavior of posterior distributions of regression coefficients in high-dimensional linear models as the number of dimensions grows with the number of observations. We show that the posterior distribution…

In this paper we compare and contrast the behavior of the posterior predictive distribution to the risk of the maximum a posteriori estimator for the random features regression model in the overparameterized regime. We will focus on the…

We discuss the Donsker-Varadhan theory of large deviations in the framework of Hamiltonian systems thermostated by a Gaussian stochastic coupling. We derive a general formula for the Donsker-Varadhan large deviation functional for dynamics…