Related papers: Shall we count the living or the dead?
Sepsis is a deadly condition affecting many patients in the hospital. Recent studies have shown that patients diagnosed with sepsis have significant mortality and morbidity, resulting from the body's dysfunctional host response to…
Balancing a rare and serious possibility against a more common and less serious one is a familiar problem in many situations, such as the prediction of rare diseases. The relative costs of forecasting errors can be used for any prediction…
This paper proposes a new approach for testing Granger non-causality on panel data. Instead of aggregating panel member statistics, we aggregate their corresponding p-values and show that the resulting p-value approximately bounds the type…
Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems should be the primary source of mortality data for governments. Accurate and timely measurement of the completeness of death registration helps inform interventions to improve CRVS…
The primary endpoint in oncology is usually overall survival, where differences between therapies may only be observable after many years. To avoid withholding of a promising therapy, preliminary approval based on a surrogate endpoint is…
One of the most common ways researchers compare survival outcomes across treatments when confounding is present is using Cox regression. This model is limited by its underlying assumption of proportional hazards; in some cases, substantial…
We study the Gilbert-Shannon-Reeds model for riffle shuffles and ask 'How many times must a deck of cards be shuffled for the deck to be in close to random order?'. In 1992, Bayer and Diaconis gave a solution which gives exact and…
The Rasch model has been widely used to analyse item response data in psychometrics and educational assessments. When the number of individuals and items are large, it may be impractical to provide all possible responses. It is desirable to…
Joint modelling of longitudinal observations and event times continues to remain a topic of considerable interest in biomedical research. For example, in HIV studies, the longitudinal bio-marker such as CD4 cell count in a patient's blood…
The statistical decision theory pioneered by Wald (1950) has used state-dependent mean loss (risk) to measure the performance of statistical decision functions across potential samples. We think it evident that evaluation of performance…
Transmission dynamics of infectious diseases are often studied using compartmental mathematical models, which are commonly represented as systems of autonomous ordinary differential equations. A key step in the analysis of such models is to…
Generalized likelihood ratio statistics have been proposed in Fan, Zhang and Zhang [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 153-193] as a generally applicable method for testing nonparametric hypotheses about nonparametric functions. The likelihood ratio…
Stein's method is used to obtain two theorems on multivariate normal approximation. Our main theorem, Theorem 1.2, provides a bound on the distance to normality for any nonnegative random vector. Theorem 1.2 requires multivariate size bias…
This thesis deals with applications of experimental mathematics to a number of problems. The first problem is related to random graph statistics. We consider a certain class of Galton-Watson random trees and look at the total height…
The aim of this note is to give a new proof to the conjecture, proposed by Gray et al. (2011), on the extinction of a stochastic differential equation SIS epidemic model. The conjecture was proved by Xu (2017). Our proof is much more direct…
The conditional mean risk-sharing (CMRS) rule is an important tool for distributing aggregate losses across individual risks, but its implementation in continuous multivariate models typically requires complicated multidimensional…
Recently, Halpern and Leung suggested representing uncertainty by a weighted set of probability measures, and suggested a way of making decisions based on this representation of uncertainty: maximizing weighted regret. Their paper does not…
Recently, we have shown that the age-specific prevalence of a disease can be related to the transition rates in the illness-death model via a partial differential equation (PDE). In case of a chronic disease, we show that the PDE can be…
The utility-based shortfall risk (SR) measure introduced by Folmer and Schied [15] has been recently extended by Mao and Cai [29] to cumulative prospect theory (CPT) based SR in order to better capture a decision maker's utility/risk…
A recent study in the 2017 Living to 100 Monograph published by the Society of Actuaries suggests, in contrast to previous research, that the risk of death after 110 increases with age. By fitting a Gompertz model to estimated central death…