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In computational inverse problems, it is common that a detailed and accurate forward model is approximated by a computationally less challenging substitute. The model reduction may be necessary to meet constraints in computing time when…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-14 Daniela Calvetti , Matthew M. Dunlop , Erkki Somersalo , Andrew M. Stuart

Data-driven algorithms, in particular neural networks, can emulate the effect of sub-grid scale processes in coarse-resolution climate models if trained on high-resolution climate simulations. However, they may violate key physical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-04-21 Tom Beucler , Michael Pritchard , Pierre Gentine , Stephan Rasp

Approximate Bayesian computation allows for statistical analysis in models with intractable likelihoods. In this paper we consider the asymptotic behaviour of the posterior distribution obtained by this method. We give general results on…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-09 David T. Frazier , Gael M. Martin , Christian P. Robert , Judith Rousseau

The Cold Posterior Effect (CPE) is a phenomenon in Bayesian Deep Learning (BDL), where tempering the posterior to a cold temperature often improves the predictive performance of the posterior predictive distribution (PPD). Although the term…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-27 Kenyon Ng , Chris van der Heide , Liam Hodgkinson , Susan Wei

We propose a simple yet novel data augmentation method for general data modalities based on energy-based modeling and principles from information geometry. Unlike most existing learning-based data augmentation methods, which rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Pingbang Hu , Mahito Sugiyama

Deep networks for visual recognition are known to leverage "easy to recognise" portions of objects such as faces and distinctive texture patterns. The lack of a holistic understanding of objects may increase fragility and overfitting. In…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-10-28 Ruth Fong , Andrea Vedaldi

Bayesian inference has theoretical attractions as a principled framework for reasoning about beliefs. However, the motivations of Bayesian inference which claim it to be the only 'rational' kind of reasoning do not apply in practice. They…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-14 Sebastian Farquhar

We introduce Noisy Feature Mixup (NFM), an inexpensive yet effective method for data augmentation that combines the best of interpolation based training and noise injection schemes. Rather than training with convex combinations of pairs of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-23 Soon Hoe Lim , N. Benjamin Erichson , Francisco Utrera , Winnie Xu , Michael W. Mahoney

Likelihood ratios are used for a variety of applications in particle physics data analysis, including parameter estimation, unfolding, and anomaly detection. When the data are high-dimensional, neural networks provide an effective tools for…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-03-27 Fernando Torales Acosta , Tanvi Wamorkar , Vinicius Mikuni , Benjamin Nachman

In regression analysis of counts, a lack of simple and efficient algorithms for posterior computation has made Bayesian approaches appear unattractive and thus underdeveloped. We propose a lognormal and gamma mixed negative binomial (NB)…

Applications · Statistics 2012-07-03 Mingyuan Zhou , Lingbo Li , David Dunson , Lawrence Carin

Bayesian neural network models (BNN) have re-surged in recent years due to the advancement of scalable computations and its utility in solving complex prediction problems in a wide variety of applications. Despite the popularity and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-20 Shrijita Bhattacharya , Zihuan Liu , Tapabrata Maiti

Closed-loop learning is the process of repeatedly estimating a model from data generated from the model itself. It is receiving great attention due to the possibility that large neural network models may, in the future, be primarily trained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Fariba Jangjoo , Matteo Marsili , Yasser Roudi

Compared to point estimates calculated by standard neural networks, Bayesian neural networks (BNN) provide probability distributions over the output predictions and model parameters, i.e., the weights. Training the weight distribution of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Philipp Wagner , Xinyang Wu , Marco F. Huber

Deep (neural) networks have been applied productively in a wide range of supervised and unsupervised learning tasks. Unlike classical machine learning algorithms, deep networks typically operate in the \emph{overparameterized} regime, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-14 Daniel LeJeune , Randall Balestriero , Hamid Javadi , Richard G. Baraniuk

Hierarchical data with multiple observations per group is ubiquitous in empirical sciences and is often analyzed using mixed-effects regression. In such models, Bayesian inference gives an estimate of uncertainty but is analytically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Alex Kipnis , Marcel Binz , Eric Schulz

Deep neural networks are prone to overconfident predictions on outliers. Bayesian neural networks and deep ensembles have both been shown to mitigate this problem to some extent. In this work, we aim to combine the benefits of the two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-08 Runa Eschenhagen , Erik Daxberger , Philipp Hennig , Agustinus Kristiadi

We propose Posterior Bootstrap, a set of algorithms extending Weighted Likelihood Bootstrap, to properly incorporate prior information and address the problem of model misspecification in Bayesian inference. We consider two approaches to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-19 Emilia Pompe

A Bayesian treatment of deep learning allows for the computation of uncertainties associated with the predictions of deep neural networks. We show how the concept of Errors-in-Variables can be used in Bayesian deep regression to also…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-15 Jörg Martin , Clemens Elster

We use the theory of normal variance-mean mixtures to derive a data augmentation scheme for models that include gamma functions. Our methodology applies to many situations in statistics and machine learning, including Multinomial-Dirichlet…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-22 Jingyu He , Nicholas Polson , Jianeng Xu

Confidence estimation is crucial for reflecting the reliability of large language models (LLMs), particularly in the widely used closed-source models. Utilizing data augmentation for confidence estimation is viable, but discussions focus on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Rui Wang , Renyu Zhu , Minmin Lin , Runze Wu , Tangjie Lv , Changjie Fan , Haobo Wang
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