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A central goal of modern causal inference is estimating heterogeneous treatment effects to answer questions like "how does an intervention affect each unit," rather than only on average. We study this problem with panel-data where we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-29 Anay Mehrotra , Phuc Tran , Van H. Vu , Manolis Zampetakis

This paper studies identification of average treatment effects in a panel data setting. It introduces a novel nonparametric factor model and proves identification of average treatment effects. The identification proof is based on the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-26 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens

This paper studies a panel data setting where the goal is to estimate causal effects of an intervention by predicting the counterfactual values of outcomes for treated units, had they not received the treatment. Several approaches have been…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-03-26 Susan Athey , Mohsen Bayati , Guido Imbens , Zhaonan Qu

We address a core problem in causal inference: estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using panel data with general treatment patterns. Many existing methods either do not utilize the potential underlying structure in panel data or have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-11 Retsef Levi , Elisabeth Paulson , Georgia Perakis , Emily Zhang

In this paper we study methods for estimating causal effects in settings with panel data, where some units are exposed to a treatment during some periods and the goal is estimating counterfactual (untreated) outcomes for the treated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-04-22 Susan Athey , Mohsen Bayati , Nikolay Doudchenko , Guido Imbens , Khashayar Khosravi

The presence of unobserved confounders is one of the main challenges in identifying treatment effects. In this paper, we propose a new approach to causal inference using panel data with large large $N$ and $T$. Our approach imputes the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-28 Ben Deaner , Chen-Wei Hsiang , Andrei Zeleneev

This study proposes a new Bayesian approach to infer binary treatment effects. The approach treats counterfactual untreated outcomes as missing observations and infers them by completing a matrix composed of realized and potential untreated…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-20 Masahiro Tanaka

Suppose one is interested in estimating causal effects in the presence of potentially unmeasured confounding with the aid of a valid instrumental variable. This paper investigates the problem of making inferences about the average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-15 BaoLuo Sun , Wang Miao

We introduce novel estimators for quantile causal effects with high dimensional panel data (large $N$ and $T$), where only one or a few units are affected by the intervention or policy. Our method extends the generalized synthetic control…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-19 Yihong Xu , Li Zheng

In many empirical settings, directly observing a treatment variable may be infeasible although an error-prone surrogate measurement of the latter will often be available. Causal inference based solely on the surrogate measurement is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-26 Ying Zhou , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

This paper proposes a novel approach for estimating treatment effects in panel data settings, addressing key limitations of the standard difference-in-differences (DID) approach. The standard approach relies on the parallel trends…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-14 Shoya Ishimaru

Treatment effect estimation is a fundamental problem in causal inference. We focus on designing efficient randomized controlled trials, to accurately estimate the effect of some treatment on a population of $n$ individuals. In particular,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Raghavendra Addanki , David Arbour , Tung Mai , Cameron Musco , Anup Rao

In this paper, we provide efficient estimators and honest confidence bands for a variety of treatment effects including local average (LATE) and local quantile treatment effects (LQTE) in data-rich environments. We can handle very many…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-08 Alexandre Belloni , Victor Chernozhukov , Ivan Fernández-Val , Christian Hansen

We propose a generalization of the synthetic controls and synthetic interventions methodology to incorporate network interference. We consider the estimation of unit-specific potential outcomes from panel data in the presence of spillover…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-13 Anish Agarwal , Sarah H. Cen , Devavrat Shah , Christina Lee Yu

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-05 Baoluo Sun , Yifan Cui , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

This paper studies inference on treatment effects in panel data settings with unobserved confounding. We model outcome variables through a factor model with random factors and loadings. Such factors and loadings may act as unobserved…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-12-05 Guido W. Imbens , Davide Viviano

The estimation of average treatment effects (ATEs), defined as the difference in expected outcomes between treatment and control groups, is a central topic in causal inference. This study develops semiparametric efficient estimators for ATE…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Masahiro Kato , Fumiaki Kozai , Ryo Inokuchi

This paper provides estimation and inference methods for a conditional average treatment effects (CATE) characterized by a high-dimensional parameter in both homogeneous cross-sectional and unit-heterogeneous dynamic panel data settings. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-13 Vira Semenova , Matt Goldman , Victor Chernozhukov , Matt Taddy

We propose a general approach for inference for a broad class of treatment effect parameters in a setting of a discrete valued treatment and instrument with a general outcome variable. The class of parameters considered are those that can…

The synthetic controls (SC) methodology is a prominent tool for policy evaluation in panel data applications. Researchers commonly justify the SC framework with a low-rank matrix factor model that assumes the potential outcomes are…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-08-27 Anish Agarwal , Devavrat Shah , Dennis Shen
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