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This article surveys the variety of ways in which a directed acyclic graph (DAG) can be used to represent a problem of probabilistic causality. For each of these we describe the relevant formal or informal semantics governing that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-16 Philip Dawid

Causal inference with observational data critically relies on untestable and extra-statistical assumptions that have (sometimes) testable implications. Well-known sets of assumptions that are sufficient to justify the causal interpretation…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-20 Pablo Geraldo Bastías

In this paper, we introduce a novel class of graphical models for representing time lag specific causal relationships and independencies of multivariate time series with unobserved confounders. We completely characterize these graphs and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-06 Andreas Gerhardus

Assessing the accuracy of the output of causal discovery algorithms is crucial in developing and comparing novel methods. Common evaluation metrics such as the structural Hamming distance are useful for assessing individual links of causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-07 Jonas Wahl , Jakob Runge

Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) are a standard tool in causal modeling, but their suitability for capturing the complexity of large-scale multimodal data is questionable. In practice, real-world multimodal datasets are often collected from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Yuhang Liu , Zhen Zhang , Dong Gong , Erdun Gao , Biwei Huang , Mingming Gong , Anton van den Hengel , Kun Zhang , Javen Qinfeng Shi

We study the problem of graph structure identification, i.e., of recovering the graph of dependencies among time series. We model these time series data as components of the state of linear stochastic networked dynamical systems. We assume…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-29 Sérgio Machado , Anirudh Sridhar , Paulo Gil , Jorge Henriques , José M. F. Moura , Augusto Santos

Causality is important for designing interpretable and robust methods in artificial intelligence research. We propose a local approach to identify whether a variable is a cause of a given target under the framework of causal graphical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-08 Zhuangyan Fang , Yue Liu , Zhi Geng , Shengyu Zhu , Yangbo He

We study the problem of learning a directed acyclic graph from data generated according to an additive, non-linear structural equation model with Gaussian noise. We express each non-linear function through a basis expansion, and derive a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-27 Xiaozhu Zhang , Nir Keret , Ali Shojaie , Armeen Taeb

An important task in data analysis is the discovery of causal relationships between observed variables. For continuous-valued data, linear acyclic causal models are commonly used to model the data-generating process, and the inference of…

Discovering causal structure from purely observational data (i.e., causal discovery), aiming to identify causal relationships among variables, is a fundamental task in machine learning. The recent invention of differentiable score-based DAG…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Fangfu Liu , Wenchang Ma , An Zhang , Xiang Wang , Yueqi Duan , Tat-Seng Chua

Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are commonly used to represent causal relationships among random variables in graphical models. Applications of these models arise in the study of physical, as well as biological systems, where directed edges…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2009-12-01 Ali Shojaie , George Michailidis

This paper studies the causal representation learning problem when the latent causal variables are observed indirectly through an unknown linear transformation. The objectives are: (i) recovering the unknown linear transformation (up to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-02 Burak Varici , Emre Acarturk , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Abhishek Kumar , Ali Tajer

Structural learning of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) or Bayesian networks has been studied extensively under the assumption that data are independent. We propose a new Gaussian DAG model for dependent data which assumes the observations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-30 Hangjian Li , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Qing Zhou

Regularization improves generalization of supervised models to out-of-sample data. Prior works have shown that prediction in the causal direction (effect from cause) results in lower testing error than the anti-causal direction. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-29 Trent Kyono , Yao Zhang , Mihaela van der Schaar

Recovering the underlying Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) structures from observational data presents a formidable challenge, partly due to the combinatorial nature of the DAG-constrained optimization problem. Recently, researchers have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-26 Zhen Zhang , Ignavier Ng , Dong Gong , Yuhang Liu , Mingming Gong , Biwei Huang , Kun Zhang , Anton van den Hengel , Javen Qinfeng Shi

When dealing with time series data, causal inference methods often employ structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) processes to model time-evolving random systems. In this work, we rephrase recursive SVAR processes with possible latent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-19 Nicolas-Domenic Reiter , Andreas Gerhardus , Jonas Wahl , Jakob Runge

Causal discovery aims to recover a causal graph from data generated by it; constraint based methods do so by searching for a d-separating conditioning set of nodes in the graph via an oracle. In this paper, we provide analytic evidence that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-04 Itai Feigenbaum , Huan Wang , Shelby Heinecke , Juan Carlos Niebles , Weiran Yao , Caiming Xiong , Devansh Arpit

We propose a joint order-based scoring framework for causal structure learning of directed acyclic graph (DAG) models under heterogeneous data settings. We show that leveraging heterogeneity improves the accuracy of causal ordering…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Hyunwoong Chang , Fariha Taskin

We present a graphical approach to deriving inequality constraints for directed acyclic graph (DAG) models, where some variables are unobserved. In particular we show that the observed distribution of a discrete model is always restricted…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-09-14 Robin J. Evans

The problem of learning structural equation models (SEMs) from data is a fundamental problem in causal inference. We develop a new algorithm --- which is computationally and statistically efficient and works in the high-dimensional regime…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-30 Asish Ghoshal , Jean Honorio