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Related papers: Deep Switching State Space Model (DS$^3$M) for Non…

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Understanding complex systems by inferring trajectories from sparse sample snapshots is a fundamental challenge in a wide range of domains, e.g., single-cell biology, meteorology, and economics. Despite advancements in Bridge and Flow…

Unpredictability of renewable energy sources coupled with the complexity of those methods used for various purposes in this area calls for the development of robust methods such as DL models within the renewable energy domain. Given the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-07 Lutfu Sua , Haibo Wang , Jun Huang

Effectively modeling non-stationary dynamics in probabilistic multivariate time series(MTS) forecasting requires balancing expressiveness with robustness. Existing parametric approaches benefit from strong inductive biases but lack…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Jinglin Li , Jun Tan , QI Fang , Ning Gui

Time series analysis by state-space models is widely used in forecasting and extracting unobservable components like level, slope, and seasonality, along with explanatory variables. However, their reliance on traditional Kalman filtering…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-20 André Ramos , Davi Valladão , Alexandre Street

Empirically observed time series in physics, biology, or medicine, are commonly generated by some underlying dynamical system (DS) which is the target of scientific interest. There is an increasing interest to harvest machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-07 Daniel Kramer , Philine Lou Bommer , Carlo Tombolini , Georgia Koppe , Daniel Durstewitz

We propose a deep generative Markov State Model (DeepGenMSM) learning framework for inference of metastable dynamical systems and prediction of trajectories. After unsupervised training on time series data, the model contains (i) a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-14 Hao Wu , Andreas Mardt , Luca Pasquali , Frank Noe

Dynamic network models (DNMs) are belief networks for temporal reasoning. The DNM methodology combines techniques from time series analysis and probabilistic reasoning to provide (1) a knowledge representation that integrates…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-08 Paul Dagum , Adam Galper

Accurate knowledge of the state variables in a dynamical system is critical for effective control, diagnosis, and supervision, especially when direct measurements of all states are infeasible. This paper presents a novel approach to…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-07-10 Ayoub Farkane , Mohamed Boutayeb , Mustapha Oudani , Mounir Ghogho

While most time series are non-stationary, it is inevitable for models to face the distribution shift issue in time series forecasting. Existing solutions manipulate statistical measures (usually mean and std.) to adjust time series…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Wei Fan , Kun Yi , Hangting Ye , Zhiyuan Ning , Qi Zhang , Ning An

We propose a hybrid meta-learning framework for forecasting and anomaly detection in nonlinear dynamical systems characterized by nonstationary and stochastic behavior. The approach integrates a physics-inspired simulator that captures…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-18 Abdullah Burkan Bereketoglu

We present Neural Stochastic Contraction Metrics (NSCM), a new design framework for provably-stable robust control and estimation for a class of stochastic nonlinear systems. It uses a spectrally-normalized deep neural network to construct…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-05 Hiroyasu Tsukamoto , Soon-Jo Chung , Jean-Jacques E. Slotine

The recurrent neural network and its variants have shown great success in processing sequences in recent years. However, this deep neural network has not aroused much attention in anomaly detection through predictively process monitoring.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Jiaqi Qiu , Yu Lin , Inez Zwetsloot

In this paper, we present SSDNet, a novel deep learning approach for time series forecasting. SSDNet combines the Transformer architecture with state space models to provide probabilistic and interpretable forecasts, including trend and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-21 Yang Lin , Irena Koprinska , Mashud Rana

Time series forecasting remains a central challenge problem in almost all scientific disciplines. We introduce a novel load forecasting method in which observed dynamics are modeled as a forced linear system using Dynamic Mode Decomposition…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-07-13 Daniel Dylewsky , David Barajas-Solano , Tong Ma , Alexandre M. Tartakovsky , J. Nathan Kutz

In this work, we introduce a generalized framework for multiscale state-space modeling that incorporates nested nonlinear dynamics, with a specific focus on Bayesian learning under switching regimes. Our framework captures the complex…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Nayely Vélez-Cruz , Manfred D. Laubichler

Time-synchronized state estimation is a challenge for distribution systems because of limited real-time observability. This paper addresses this challenge by formulating a deep learning (DL)-based approach to perform unbalanced three-phase…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-11 Behrouz Azimian , Reetam Sen Biswas , Anamitra Pal , Lang Tong

Neural population activity often exhibits regime-dependent non-stationarity in the form of switching dynamics. Learning accurate switching dynamical system models can reveal how behavior is encoded in neural activity. Existing switching…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 DongKyu Kim , Han-Lin Hsieh , Maryam M. Shanechi

We introduce an extension of finite mixture models by incorporating skew-normal distributions within a Hidden Markov Model framework. By assuming a constant transition probability matrix and allowing emission distributions to vary according…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-25 Andrea Nigri , Marco Forti , Han Lin Shang

Modeling the dynamics of non-stationary stochastic systems requires balancing the representational power of deep learning with the mathematical transparency of classical models. While classical Markov transition operators provide explicit,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Jan Rovirosa , Jesse Schmolze

Contemporary power grids are being challenged by rapid voltage fluctuations that are caused by large-scale deployment of renewable generation, electric vehicles, and demand response programs. In this context, monitoring the grid's operating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-04 Liang Zhang , Gang Wang , Georgios B. Giannakis