Related papers: SIMLR: Machine Learning inside the SIR model for C…

Objective: COVID-19 has spread worldwide and made a huge influence across the world. Modeling the infectious spread situation of COVID-19 is essential to understand the current condition and to formulate intervention measurements.…

The present article studies the extension of two deterministic models for describing the novel coronavirus pandemic crisis, the SIR model and the SEIR model. The models were studied and compared to real data in order to support the validity…

Background: To assist policy makers in taking adequate decisions to stop the spread of COVID-19 pandemic, accurate forecasting of the disease propagation is of paramount importance. Materials and Methods: This paper presents a deep learning…

Severe acute respiratory disease SARS-CoV-2 has had a found impact on public health systems and healthcare emergency response especially with respect to making decisions on the most effective measures to be taken at any given time. As…

The continuously growing number of COVID-19 cases pressures healthcare services worldwide. Accurate short-term forecasting is thus vital to support country-level policy making. The strategies adopted by countries to combat the pandemic…

In this work we evaluate the applicability of an ensemble of population models and machine learning models to predict the near future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular use case in Spain. We rely solely in open and public…

The classic SIR model of epidemic dynamics is solved completely by quadratures, including a time integral transform expanded in a series of incomplete gamma functions. The model is also generalized to arbitrary time-dependent infection…

This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…

Graph convolutional neural networks (GCNs) have shown tremendous promise in addressing data-intensive challenges in recent years. In particular, some attempts have been made to improve predictions of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR)…

We examine the age-structured SIR model, a variant of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemic propagation, in the context of COVID-19. In doing so, we provide a theoretical basis for the model, perform an…

An epidemiological model is developed for the spread of COVID-19 in South Africa. A variant of the classical compartmental SEIR model, called the SEIQRDP model, is used. As South Africa is still in the early phases of the global COVID-19…

The effective control of infectious diseases relies on accurate assessment of the impact of interventions, which is often hindered by the complex dynamics of the spread of disease. A Beta-Dirichlet switching state-space transmission model…

With the outbreak of COVID-19, how to mitigate and suppress its spread is a big issue to the government. Department of public health need powerful models to model and predict the trend and scale of such pandemic. And models that could…

We study the increases of infections and deaths in Sweden caused by COVID-19 with several different models: Firstly an analytical susceptible-infected (SI) model and the standard susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. Then within the…

We describe the population-based SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infected, removed) model developed by the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG), which advises the Irish government on COVID-19 responses. The model assumes a…

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused devastating economic and social disruption, straining the resources of healthcare institutions worldwide. This has led to a nationwide call for models to predict hospitalization and severe illness in…

Precise outbreak forecasting of infectious diseases is essential for effective public health responses and epidemic control. The increased availability of machine learning (ML) methods for time-series forecasting presents an enticing avenue…

The present paper introduces a data-driven framework for describing the time-varying nature of an SIRD model in the context of COVID-19. By embedding a rolling regression in a mixed integer bilevel nonlinear programming problem, our aim is…

Faced with the 2020 SARS-CoV2 epidemic, public health officials have been seeking models that could be used to predict not only the number of new cases but also the levels of hospitalisation, critical care and deaths. In this paper we…

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted lives and economies across the globe, leading to many deaths. While vaccination is an important intervention, its roll-out is slow and unequal across the globe. Therefore, extensive testing still remains…