Related papers: SIMLR: Machine Learning inside the SIR model for C…

Mathematical models of infectious diseases exhibit robust dynamics such as stable endemic or a disease-free equilibrium, or convergence of the solutions to periodic epidemic waves. The present work shows that the accuracy of such dynamics…

Applying a ML approach to the temporal variability of the Spike protein sequence enables us to identify, classify and track emerging virus variants. Our analysis is unbiased, in the sense that it does not require any prior knowledge of the…

Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) models with inter-individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to infection were proposed early in the COVID-19 pandemic as a potential element of the mathematical/statistical toolset…

The COVID-19 pandemic represents the most significant public health disaster since the 1918 influenza pandemic. During pandemics such as COVID-19, timely and reliable spatio-temporal forecasting of epidemic dynamics is crucial. Deep…

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to improve the modeling, estimation, and prediction of how infectious diseases spread. SEIR-like models have been particularly successful in providing accurate short-term predictions. This study…

COVID-19 is a pandemic disease that began to rapidly spread in the US with the first case detected on January 19, 2020, in Washington State. March 9, 2020, and then increased rapidly with total cases of 25,739 as of April 20, 2020. The…

In this research, we study the propagation patterns of epidemic diseases such as the COVID-19 coronavirus, from a mathematical modeling perspective. The study is based on an extensions of the well-known susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the integration of interpretable machine learning techniques has garnered significant attention, offering transparent and understandable insights crucial for informed clinical decision making. This…

We propose an epidemiological model using an adaptive dynamic three compartment (with four states) SIR(D) model. Our approach is similar to non-parametric curve fitting in spirit and automatically adapts to key external factors, such as…

There is increasing evidence that one of the most difficult problems in trying to control the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic is the presence of a large cohort of asymptomatic infectives. We develop a SIR-type model taking into account the…

The growing literature on the propagation of COVID-19 relies on various dynamic SIR-type models (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) which yield model-dependent results. For transparency and ease of comparing the results, we introduce a common…

Interpreting deep learning time series models is crucial in understanding the model's behavior and learning patterns from raw data for real-time decision-making. However, the complexity inherent in transformer-based time series models poses…

During a pandemic, early prognostication of patient infected rates can reduce the death by ensuring treatment facility and proper resource allocation. In recent months, the number of death and infected rates has increased more distinguished…

Forecasting the effect of COVID-19 is essential to design policies that may prepare us to handle the pandemic. Many methods have already been proposed, particularly, to forecast reported cases and deaths at country-level and state-level.…

Forecasting the short-term spread of an ongoing disease outbreak is a formidable challenge due to the complexity of contributing factors, some of which can be characterized through interlinked, multi-modality variables such as…

Students develop and test simple models of the spread of COVID-19. Microsoft Excel is used as the modeling platform because it's non-threatening to students and because it's widely available. Students develop finite difference models and…

The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients of COVID-19 epidemic, including the effect of demographic…

In the last decade, humanity has faced many different pandemics such as SARS, H1N1, and presently novel coronavirus (COVID-19). On one side, scientists are focusing on vaccinations, and on the other side, there is a need to propose models…

Early detection and isolation of COVID-19 patients are essential for successful implementation of mitigation strategies and eventually curbing the disease spread. With a limited number of daily COVID-19 tests performed in every country,…

COVID-19 was first discovered in December 2019 and has continued to rapidly spread across countries worldwide infecting thousands and millions of people. The virus is deadly, and people who are suffering from prior illnesses or are older…