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The main result in this paper is a variational formula for the exit rate from a bounded domain for a diffusion process in terms of the stationary law of the diffusion constrained to remain in this domain forever. Related results on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-17 Ari Arapostathis , Vivek S. Borkar

Strong invariance principles describe the error term of a Brownian approximation of the partial sums of a stochastic process. While these strong approximation results have many applications, the results for continuous-time settings have…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-17 Ardjen Pengel , Joris Bierkens

In Monte-Carlo methods the Markov processes used to sample a given target distribution usually satisfy detailed balance, i.e. they are time-reversible. However, relatively recent results have demonstrated that appropriate reversible and…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-29 Luc Rey-Bellet , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

We present a general method for studying long time asymptotics of nonlinear parabolic partial differential equations. The method does not rely on a priori estimates such as the maximum principle. It applies to systems of coupled equations,…

chao-dyn · Physics 2008-02-03 J. Bricmont , A. Kupiainen , G. Lin

We obtain an explicit formula for the variance of the number of $k$-peaks in a uniformly random permutation. This is then used to obtain an asymptotic formula for the variance of the length of longest $k$-alternating subsequence in random…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-15 Recep Altar Çiçeksiz , Yunus Emre Demirci , Ümit Işlak

In this paper, we study stochastic volatility models in regimes where the maturity is small, but large compared to the mean-reversion time of the stochastic volatility factor. The problem falls in the class of averaging/homogenization…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2012-08-22 Jin Feng , Jean-Pierre Fouque , Rohini Kumar

In this paper we present multivariate space-time fractional Poisson processes by considering common random time-changes of a (finite-dimensional) vector of independent classical (non-fractional) Poisson processes. In some cases we also…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-22 Luisa Beghin , Claudio Macci

We present a detailed study on the mean first-passage time of volatility processes. We analyze the theoretical expressions based on the most common stochastic volatility models along with empirical results extracted from daily data of major…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 Jaume Masoliver , Josep Perello

By using the large deviation principle, we investigate the expected exit time from the interval [-1,1] of a process of autoregressive type. The case when the autoregression function f is linear and the innovations have a normal distribution…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-19 Göran Högnäs , Brita Jung

Markov branching systems form a fundamental class of stochastic models that are extensively applied in biology, physics, finance, and other domains. These systems are distinguished by their continuous-time evolution and inherent branching…

New algorithms for computing of asymptotic expansions for stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes are presented. The algorithms are based on special techniques of sequential phase space reduction, which can…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-08 Dmitrii Silvestrov , Sergei Silvestrov

We investigate the Poisson regression method for Markov and semi-Markov jump processes from a nonparametric angle, allowing the lengths of the time and duration intervals in the partition to vary with the number of observations. Imposing no…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Martin Bladt , Rasmus Frigaard Lemvig

New algorithms for construction of asymptotic expansions for stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes with finite phase spaces are presented. These algorithms are based on a special technique of sequential…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-16 Dmitrii Silvestrov , Sergei Silvestrov

In this paper, we derive non-asymptotic achievability and converse bounds on the random number generation with/without side-information. Our bounds are efficiently computable in the sense that the computational complexity does not depend on…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-09-28 Masahito Hayashi , Shun Watanabe

We consider estimation procedures which are recursive in the sense that each successive estimator is obtained from the previous one by a simple adjustment. The model considered in the paper is very general as we do not impose any…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Teo Sharia

Thermodynamic uncertainty relations have emerged as universal bounds on current fluctuations in non-equilibrium systems. Here we derive a new bound for a particular class of run-and-tumble type processes using the mathematical framework of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-07-02 Mayank Shreshtha , Rosemary J. Harris

We aim at characterizing the asymptotic behavior of value functions in the control of piece-wise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP) of switch type under nonexpansive assumptions. For a particular class of processes inspired by temperate…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-05-29 Dan Goreac

The paper deals with a certain class of random evolutions. We develop a construction that yields an invariant measure for a continuous-time Markov process with random transitions. The approach is based on a particular way of constructing…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-10-20 Y. Belopolskaya , Y. Suhov

We provide a rather explicit formula for the resolvent of a~concatenation of $N$ processes in terms of their exit laws and certain probability measures characterizing the way the processes are concatenated. As an application, we prove an…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-21 Adam Bobrowski

It\^{o} processes are the most common form of continuous semimartingales, and include diffusion processes. This paper is concerned with the nonparametric regression relationship between two such It\^{o} processes. We are interested in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-10 Per Aslak Mykland , Lan Zhang