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We propose SWA-Gaussian (SWAG), a simple, scalable, and general purpose approach for uncertainty representation and calibration in deep learning. Stochastic Weight Averaging (SWA), which computes the first moment of stochastic gradient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-01 Wesley Maddox , Timur Garipov , Pavel Izmailov , Dmitry Vetrov , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) allow rigorous uncertainty quantification in deep learning, but often come at a prohibitive computational cost. We propose three different innovative architectures of partial trace-class Bayesian neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-04 Arran Carter , Torben Sell

Inputs to machine learning models can have associated noise or uncertainties, but they are often ignored and not modelled. It is unknown if Bayesian Neural Networks and their approximations are able to consider uncertainty in their inputs.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-15 Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Marco Zullich

We show that training a deep network using batch normalization is equivalent to approximate inference in Bayesian models. We further demonstrate that this finding allows us to make meaningful estimates of the model uncertainty using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-17 Mattias Teye , Hossein Azizpour , Kevin Smith

This paper proposes a paradigm of uncertainty injection for training deep learning model to solve robust optimization problems. The majority of existing studies on deep learning focus on the model learning capability, while assuming the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-28 Wei Cui , Wei Yu

Real-world data contains aleatoric uncertainty - irreducible noise arising from imperfect measurements or from incomplete knowledge about the data generation process. Mean-variance estimation networks can learn this type of uncertainty but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Jiaxiang Yi , Miguel A. Bessa

Stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems are ubiquitous in modern, real-world applications. Yet, estimating the unknown parameters of stochastic, nonlinear dynamical models remains a challenging problem. The majority of existing methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-06 Anubhab Ghosh , Mohamed Abdalmoaty , Saikat Chatterjee , Håkan Hjalmarsson

Deep neural networks have achieved impressive results on a wide variety of tasks. However, quantifying uncertainty in the network's output is a challenging task. Bayesian models offer a mathematical framework to reason about model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-28 Manikanta Srikar Yellapragada , Chandra Prakash Konkimalla

Bayesian inference in deep neural networks is challenging due to the high-dimensional, strongly multi-modal parameter posterior density landscape. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches asymptotically recover the true posterior but are…

Graph neural networks for molecular property prediction are frequently underspecified by data and fail to generalise to new scaffolds at test time. A potential solution is Bayesian learning, which can capture our uncertainty in the model…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2020-12-04 George Lamb , Brooks Paige

Uncertainty quantification in automated image analysis is highly desired in many applications. Typically, machine learning models in classification or segmentation are only developed to provide binary answers; however, quantifying the…

Deep learning has been shown to be highly effective for automatic modulation classification (AMC), which is a pivotal technology for next-generation cognitive communications. Yet, existing deep learning methods for AMC often lack robust…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-03 Huian Yang , Rajeev Sahay

Supervised masking approaches in the time-frequency domain aim to employ deep neural networks to estimate a multiplicative mask to extract clean speech. This leads to a single estimate for each input without any guarantees or measures of…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-05-16 Huajian Fang , Dennis Becker , Stefan Wermter , Timo Gerkmann

Deep neural networks offer numerous potential applications across geoscience, for example, one could argue that they are the state-of-the-art method for predicting faults in seismic datasets. In quantitative reservoir characterization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-26 Lukas Mosser , Ehsan Zabihi Naeini

Marginalising out uncertain quantities within the internal representations or parameters of neural networks is of central importance for a wide range of learning techniques, such as empirical, variational or full Bayesian methods. We set…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-21 Justin Bayer , Maximilian Karl , Daniela Korhammer , Patrick van der Smagt

Real-world time series data often exhibits substantial missing values, posing challenges for advanced analysis. A common approach to addressing this issue is imputation, where the primary challenge lies in determining the appropriate values…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Ying Liu , Peng Cui , Wenbo Hu , Richang Hong

Deep neural networks(NNs) have achieved impressive performance, often exceed human performance on many computer vision tasks. However, one of the most challenging issues that still remains is that NNs are overconfident in their predictions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-30 Chanwoo Park , Jae Myung Kim , Seok Hyeon Ha , Jungwoo Lee

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-08 Dennis Ulmer , Christian Hardmeier , Jes Frellsen

Machine Learning is becoming more prevalent in science and engineering, but many approaches do not provide meaningful uncertainty estimates and predictions may also violate known physical knowledge. We propose a Bayesian framework to embed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-29 Matthew Marsh , Benoît Chachuat , Antonio del Rio Chanona

When training data is sparse, more domain knowledge must be incorporated into the learning algorithm in order to reduce the effective size of the hypothesis space. This paper builds on previous work in which knowledge about qualitative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-09 Eric E. Altendorf , Angelo C. Restificar , Thomas G. Dietterich