Related papers: Model Checking Finite-Horizon Markov Chains with P…
Statistical model checking (SMC) is a technique for analysis of probabilistic systems that may be (partially) unknown. We present an SMC algorithm for (unbounded) reachability yielding probably approximately correct (PAC) guarantees on the…
In this paper we present an algorithm for pricing barrier options in one-dimensional Markov models. The approach rests on the construction of an approximating continuous-time Markov chain that closely follows the dynamics of the given…
Two different approaches to dealing with probabilistic knowledge are examined -models and inductive inference. Examples of the first are: influence diagrams [1], Bayesian networks [2], log-linear models [3, 4]. Examples of the second are:…
This article deals with stochastic processes endowed with the Markov (memoryless) property and evolving over general (uncountable) state spaces. The models further depend on a non-deterministic quantity in the form of a control input, which…
Markov chain Monte Carlo is an inherently serial algorithm. Although likelihood calculations for individual steps can sometimes be parallelized, the serial evolution of the process is widely viewed as incompatible with parallelization,…
Inference for continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) becomes challenging when the process is only observed at discrete time points. The exact likelihood is intractable, and existing methods often struggle even in medium-dimensional…
Probabilistic model checkers like PRISM only check probabilistic systems of a fixed size. To guarantee the desired properties for an arbitrary size, mathematical analysis is necessary. We show for two case studies how this can be done in…
Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) are a principled planning model for sequential decision-making under uncertainty. Yet, real-world problems with high-dimensional observations, such as camera images, remain intractable…
Computing the marginal likelihood or evidence is one of the core challenges in Bayesian analysis. While there are many established methods for estimating this quantity, they predominantly rely on using a large number of posterior samples…
Probabilistic hyperproperties describe probabilistic relations between multiple sets of executions in a stochastic system. Prominent examples include information-theoretic characterizations of security and privacy policies. However, model…
Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a general computational approach to Bayesian inference for general state space models. Our article scales up PMCMC in terms of the number of observations and parameters by generating the…
We use Markov categories to generalize the basic theory of Markov chains and hidden Markov models to an abstract setting. This comprises characterizations of hidden Markov models in terms of conditional independences and algorithms for…
Suitable reachability conditions can make two different fixed point semantics of a transition system coincide. For instance, the total and partial expected reward semantics on Markov chains (MCs) coincide whenever the MC at hand is almost…
Parametric Markov chains occur quite naturally in various applications: they can be used for a conservative analysis of probabilistic systems (no matter how the parameter is chosen, the system works to specification); they can be used to…
IC3 has been a leap forward in symbolic model checking. This paper proposes PrIC3 (pronounced pricy-three), a conservative extension of IC3 to symbolic model checking of MDPs. Our main focus is to develop the theory underlying PrIC3.…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic functions of finite Markov chains, or, put in other words, state space models with finite state space. In this paper, we examine subspace estimation methods for HMMs whose output lies a finite…
Hidden Markov Chains (HMCs) are commonly used mathematical models of probabilistic systems. They are employed in various fields such as speech recognition, signal processing, and biological sequence analysis. We consider the problem of…
Reachability analysis is a powerful tool for computing the set of states or outputs reachable for a system. While previous work has focused on systems described by state-space models, we present the first methods to compute reachable sets…
Probabilistic model checking is an approach to the formal modelling and analysis of stochastic systems. Over the past twenty five years, the number of different formalisms and techniques developed in this field has grown considerably, as…
In this paper, we study a model of quantum Markov chains that is a quantum analogue of Markov chains and is obtained by replacing probabilities in transition matrices with quantum operations. We show that this model is very suited to…