Related papers: Rare extinction events in cyclic predator-prey gam…
The survival of natural populations may be greatly affected by environmental conditions that vary in space and time. We look at a population residing in two locations (patches) coupled by migration, in which the local conditions fluctuate…
The extinction of a single species due to demographic stochasticity is analyzed. The discrete nature of the individual agents and the Poissonian noise related to the birth-death processes result in local extinction of a metastable…
We study the stochastic evolution of four species in cyclic competition in a well mixed environment. In systems composed of a finite number $N$ of particles these simple interaction rules result in a rich variety of extinction scenarios,…
The study of interactions between multiple species in an ecosystem is an active and impactful direction of inquiry. This is true in particular for fragile systems in which even small perturbations of their functional parameters can produce…
Methods for predicting the probability and timing of a species' extinction are typically based on a combination of theoretical models and empirical data, and focus on single species population dynamics. Of course, species also interact with…
Rare weather and climate events, such as heat waves and floods, can bring tremendous social costs. Climate data is often limited in duration and spatial coverage, and climate forecasting has often turned to simulations of climate models to…
Cyclic dominance of species has been identified as a potential mechanism to maintain biodiversity, see e.g. B. Kerr, M. A. Riley, M. W. Feldman and B. J. M. Bohannan [Nature {\bf 418}, 171 (2002)] and B. Kirkup and M. A. Riley [Nature {\bf…
We analyze the long term behavior of interacting populations which can be controlled through harvesting. The dynamics is assumed to be discrete in time and stochastic due to the effect of environmental fluctuations. We present extinction…
Isolated populations ultimately go extinct because of the intrinsic noise of elementary processes. In multi-population systems extinction of a population may occur via more than one route. We investigate this generic situation in a simple…
Our paper computationally explores the extinction dynamics of an animal species effected by a sudden spike in mortality due to an extreme event. In our study, the animal species has a 2-year life cycle and is endowed with a high survival…
We study the dynamics of a second-order difference equation that is derived from a planar Ricker model of two-stage (e.g. adult, juvenile) biological populations. We obtain sufficient conditions for global convergence to zero in the…
The extinction of species is a core process that affects the diversity of life on Earth. One way of investigating the causes and consequences of extinctions is to build conceptual ecological models, and to use the dynamical outcomes of such…
Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…
A model for large-scale evolution recently introduced by Amaral and Meyer is studied analytically and numerically. Species are located at different trophic levels and become extinct if their prey becomes extinct. It is proved that this…
Mass extinction is a phenomenon in the history of life on Earth when a considerable number of species go extinct over a relatively short period of time. The magnitude of extinction varies between the events, the most well known are the…
We investigate how a catastrophic event (modeled as a temporary fall of the reproduction rate) increases the extinction probability of an isolated self-regulated stochastic population. Using a variant of the Verhulst logistic model as an…
Frequency-dependent selection reflects the interaction between different species as they battle for limited resources in their environment. In a stochastic evolutionary game the species relative fitnesses guides the evolutionary dynamics…
Highly-diverse ecosystems exhibit a broad distribution of population sizes and species turnover, where species at high and low abundances are exchanged over time. We show that these two features generically emerge in the fluctuating phase…
The presence of erratic or unstable paths in standard kinetic Monte Carlo simulations significantly undermines the accurate simulation and sampling of transition pathways. While typically reliable methods, such as the Gillespie algorithm,…
Stochastic vegetation-water dynamical systems play a pivotal role in ecological stability, biodiversity, water resource management, and adaptation to climate change. This research proposes a machine learning-based method for analyzing rare…