Related papers: Optimal Lockdown Policies driven by Socioeconomic …
We are currently facing a highly critical case of a world-wide pandemic. The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, a.k.a. COVID-19) has proved to be extremely contagious and the original outbreak from Asia has now spread to all continents. This…
This work examines the use of reinforcement learning (RL) to optimize cyclic lockdowns, which is one of the methods available for control of the COVID-19 pandemic. The problem is structured as an optimal control system for tracking a…
The Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model is one of the standard models of disease spreading. Here we analyse an extended SEIR model that accounts for asymptomatic carriers, believed to play an important role…
Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is…
A pandemic is the spread of a disease across large regions, and can have devastating costs to the society in terms of health, economic and social. As such, the study of effective pandemic mitigation strategies can yield significant positive…
We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe…
Contagious diseases can spread quickly in human populations, either through airborne transmission or if some other spreading vectors are abundantly accessible. They can be particularly devastating if the impact on individuals' health has…
As of December 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has infected over 75 million people, making it the deadliest pandemic in modern history. This study develops a novel compartmental epidemiological model specific to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and…
We study the impact of parameter estimation and state measurement errors on a control framework for optimally mitigating the spread of epidemics. We capture the epidemic spreading process using a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemic…
This paper utilizes a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-recovered (SIR) model with a non-linear incidence rate to perform a detailed mathematical study of optimal lock-down intensity and vaccination rate under the COVID-19 pandemic…
This paper presents and discusses a mathematical model inspired by control theory to derive optimal public policies for minimizing costs associated with the reduction and control of criminal activity in a population. Specifically, we…
Information spreading in a population can be modeled as an epidemic. Campaigners (e.g. election campaign managers, companies marketing products or movies) are interested in spreading a message by a given deadline, using limited resources.…
This paper aims to study the economic impact of COVID-19. To do that, in the first step, I showed that the adjusted SEQIER model, which is a generalization form of SEIR model, is a good fit to the real COVID-induced daily death data in a…
We investigate adaptive strategies to robustly and optimally control the COVID-19 pandemic via social distancing measures based on the example of Germany. Our goal is to minimize the number of fatalities over the course of two years without…
In this study, we formulate a mathematical model incorporating age specific transmission dynamics of COVID-19 to evaluate the role of vaccination and treatment strategies in reducing the size of COVID-19 burden. Initially, we establish the…
In this work we analyze mathematically the consequences and effectiveness of strategies to control an epidemic in the framework of classical SEIR models with multiple parallel infectious stages. We define the mathematical concept of a…
The dynamics of epidemics depend on how people's behavior changes during an outbreak. At the beginning of the epidemic, people do not know about the virus, then, after the outbreak of epidemics and alarm, they begin to comply with the…
Many of the control policies that were put into place during the Covid-19 pandemic had a common goal: to flatten the curve of the number of infected people so that its peak remains under a critical threshold. This letter considers the…
In this study, we present an integro-differential model to simulate the local spread of infections. The model incorporates a standard susceptible-infected-recovered (\textit{SIR}-) model enhanced by an integral kernel, allowing for…
We analyze an approach to managing the COVID-19 pandemic without shutting down the economy while staying within the capacity of the healthcare system. We base our analysis on a detailed heterogeneous epidemiological model, which takes into…