Related papers: Optimal Lockdown Policies driven by Socioeconomic …
We present a new mathematical model to explicitly capture the effects that the three restriction measures: the lockdown date and duration, social distancing and masks, and, schools and border closing, have in controlling the spread of…
The non-population conserving SIR (SIR-NC) model to describe the spread of infections in a community is proposed and studied. Unlike the standard SIR model, SIR-NC does not assume population conservation. Although similar in form to the…
The COVID-19 pandemic due to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has directly impacted the public health and economy worldwide. To overcome this problem, countries have adopted different policies and non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling…
Strong social distancing restrictions have been crucial to controlling the COVID-19 outbreak thus far, and the next question is when and how to relax these restrictions. A sequential timing of relaxing restrictions across groups is explored…
During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a…
We study the problem of a policymaker who aims at taming the spread of an epidemic while minimizing its associated social costs. The main feature of our model lies in the fact that the disease's transmission rate is a diffusive stochastic…
Game theory has been an effective tool in the control of disease spread and in suggesting optimal policies at both individual and area levels. In this paper, we propose a multi-region SEIR model based on stochastic differential game theory,…
To curb the spread of COVID-19, many governments around the world have implemented tiered lockdowns with varying degrees of stringency. Lockdown levels are typically increased when the disease spreads and reduced when the disease abates. A…
We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…
We present a data-driven optimal control approach which integrates the reported partial data with the epidemic dynamics for COVID-19. We use a basic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model, the model parameters are…
We consider the low-prevalence linearized SEIR epidemic model for a society that has resolved to keep future infections low in anticipation of a vaccine. The society can vary its amount of potentially-infection-spreading activity over time,…
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are effective measures to contain a pandemic. Yet, such control measures commonly have a negative effect on the economy. Here, we propose a macro-level approach to support resolving this…
When effective medical treatment and vaccination are not available, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, home quarantine and far-reaching shutdown of public life are the only available strategies to prevent the spread…
Understanding the dynamics of an epidemic spread is crucial for effective control measures. During the COVID-19 pandemic, quarantines were implemented to minimize infections while mitigating social and economic impacts, raising the question…
In the context of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, several reports and studies have attempted to model and predict the spread of the disease. There is also intense debate about policies for limiting the damage, both to health and to the…
Social distancing has been the only effective way to contain the spread of an infectious disease prior to the availability of the pharmaceutical treatment. It can lower the infection rate of the disease at the economic cost. A pandemic…
The adoption of containment measures to reduce the amplitude of the epidemic peak is a key aspect in tackling the rapid spread of an epidemic. Classical compartmental models must be modified and studied to correctly describe the effects of…
We have developed a globally applicable diagnostic Covid-19 model by augmenting the classical SIR epidemiological model with a neural network module. Our model does not rely upon previous epidemics like SARS/MERS and all parameters are…
I estimate the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The transmission rate is heterogeneous across countries and far exceeds the recovery rate, which enables a fast spread. In the…
Imported COVID-19 cases, if unchecked, can jeopardize the effort of domestic containment. We aim to find out what sustainable border control options for different entities (e.g., countries, states) exist during the reopening phases, given…