Related papers: Value-at-Risk Optimization with Gaussian Processes

This paper proposes an important extension to Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR), the popular systemic risk measure, and investigates its properties on the cryptocurrency market. The proposed Vulnerability-CoVaR (VCoVaR) is defined as the…

For many real-world decision-making problems subject to uncertainty, it may be essential to deal with multiple and often conflicting objectives while taking the decision-makers' risk preferences into account. Conditional value-at-risk…

Bayesian optimization usually assumes that a Bayesian prior is given. However, the strong theoretical guarantees in Bayesian optimization are often regrettably compromised in practice because of unknown parameters in the prior. In this…

Conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) is one of the most important measures of systemic risk. It is defined as the high quantile conditional on a related variable being extreme, widely used in the field of quantitative risk management. In this…

To comply with increasingly stringent international standards in risk management and regulation, several approaches have been developed in the literature for forecasting tail-risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall…

Bayesian optimization (BO) is an efficient framework for optimizing expensive black-box functions. However, it is typically formulated as learning an end-to-end mapping from inputs to scalar objectives, thereby discarding the potentially…

Kernelized bandits, also known as Bayesian optimization (BO), has been a prevalent method for optimizing complicated black-box reward functions. Various BO algorithms have been theoretically shown to enjoy upper bounds on their cumulative…

We study the noise-free Gaussian Process (GP) bandits problem, in which the learner seeks to minimize regret through noise-free observations of the black-box objective function lying on the known reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS).…

This study is the first to analyze the performance of a time-series foundation AI model for Value-at-Risk (VaR), which essentially forecasts the left-tail quantiles of returns. Foundation models, pre-trained on diverse datasets, can be…

Accurate forecasting of the Volatility-Covariance Matrix (VCV) is central to regulatory capital adequacy processes such as the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) and the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR).…

A new risk measure, the lambda value at risk (Lambda VaR), has been recently proposed from a theoretical point of view as a generalization of the value at risk (VaR). The Lambda VaR appears attractive for its potential ability to solve…

Selecting the best alternative from a finite set represents a broad class of pure exploration problems. Traditional approaches to pure exploration have predominantly relied on Gaussian or sub-Gaussian assumptions on the performance…

In this paper we discuss a general methodology to compute the market risk measure over long time horizons and at extreme percentiles, which are the typical conditions needed for estimating Economic Capital. The proposed approach extends the…

We consider a class of optimization problems with Cartesian variational inequality (CVI) constraints, where the objective function is convex and the CVI is associated with a monotone mapping and a convex Cartesian product set. This…

We present a new type of acquisition functions for online decision making in multi-armed and contextual bandit problems with extreme payoffs. Specifically, we model the payoff function as a Gaussian process and formulate a novel type of…

While maximizing expected return is the goal in most reinforcement learning approaches, risk-sensitive objectives such as conditional value at risk (CVaR) are more suitable for many high-stakes applications. However, relatively little is…

Bayesian optimization is a class of global optimization techniques. In Bayesian optimization, the underlying objective function is modeled as a realization of a Gaussian process. Although the Gaussian process assumption implies a random…

Risk management is a prominent issue in peer-to-peer lending. An investor may naturally reduce his risk exposure by diversifying instead of putting all his money on one loan. In that case, an investor may want to minimize the Value-at-Risk…

Appropriate risk management is crucial to ensure the competitiveness of financial institutions and the stability of the economy. One widely used financial risk measure is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR estimates based on linear and parametric…

Sequential optimization of black-box functions from noisy evaluations has been widely studied, with Gaussian Process bandit algorithms such as GP-UCB guaranteeing no-regret in stationary settings. However, for time-varying objectives, it is…