Related papers: Value-at-Risk Optimization with Gaussian Processes

Precise quantum expectation values are crucial for quantum algorithm development, but noise in real-world systems can degrade these estimations. While quantum error correction is resource-intensive, error mitigation strategies offer a…

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is widely used for optimising black-box functions but requires us to specify the length scale hyperparameter, which defines the smoothness of the functions the optimizer will consider. Most current BO algorithms…

We propose and analyze algorithms for distributionally robust optimization of convex losses with conditional value at risk (CVaR) and $\chi^2$ divergence uncertainty sets. We prove that our algorithms require a number of gradient…

Bayesian optimization methods have been successfully applied to black box optimization problems that are expensive to evaluate. In this paper, we adapt the so-called super effcient global optimization algorithm to solve more accurately…

Estimating the probability of failure is an important step in the certification of safety-critical systems. Efficient estimation methods are often needed due to the challenges posed by high-dimensional input spaces, risky test scenarios,…

We introduce two quantum algorithms to compute the Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) of financial derivatives using quantum computers: the first by applying existing ideas from quantum risk analysis to derivative…

In this paper, we study risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL), focusing on the objective of Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) with risk tolerance $\tau$. Starting with multi-arm bandits (MABs), we show the minimax CVaR regret rate is…

We conduct a non asymptotic study of the Cross Validation (CV) estimate of the generalization risk for learning algorithms dedicated to extreme regions of the covariates space. In this Extreme Value Analysis context, the risk function…

The debate of what quantitative risk measure to choose in practice has mainly focused on the dichotomy between Value at Risk (VaR) -- a quantile -- and Expected Shortfall (ES) -- a tail expectation. Range Value at Risk (RVaR) is a natural…

Enforcing safety in the presence of stochastic uncertainty is a challenging problem. Traditionally, researchers have proposed safety in the statistical mean as a safety measure in this case. However, ensuring safety in the statistical mean…

In light of the inherently complex and dynamic nature of real-world environments, incorporating risk measures is crucial for the robustness evaluation of deep learning models. In this work, we propose a Risk-Averse Certification framework…

Many black-box optimization tasks arising in high-stakes applications require risk-averse decisions. The standard Bayesian optimization (BO) paradigm, however, optimizes the expected value only. We generalize BO to trade mean and…

This paper concerns sequential computation of risk measures for financial data and asks how, given a risk measurement procedure, we can tell whether the answers it produces are `correct'. We draw the distinction between `external' and…

Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a widely used risk-sensitive objective for learning under rare but high-impact losses, yet its statistical behavior under heavy-tailed data remains poorly understood. Unlike expectation-based risk, CVaR…

Autoregressive processes naturally arise in a large variety of real-world scenarios, including stock markets, sales forecasting, weather prediction, advertising, and pricing. When facing a sequential decision-making problem in such a…

We study model-based reinforcement learning in an unknown finite communicating Markov decision process. We propose a simple algorithm that leverages a variance based confidence interval. We show that the proposed algorithm, UCRL-V, achieves…

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular approach for expensive black-box optimization, with applications including parameter tuning, experimental design, robotics. BO usually models the objective function by a Gaussian process (GP), and…

The goal of this paper is to characterize Gaussian-Process optimization in the setting where the function domain is large relative to the number of admissible function evaluations, i.e., where it is impossible to find the global optimum. We…

We show how one can actually take advantage of the strongly non-Gaussian nature of the fluctuations of financial assets to simplify the calculation of the Value-at-Risk of complex non linear portfolios. The resulting equations are not hard…

In an environment of increasingly volatile financial markets, the accurate estimation of risk remains a major challenge. Traditional econometric models, such as GARCH and its variants, are based on assumptions that are often too rigid to…