Related papers: Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average Models w…

We derive generalization error bounds for stationary univariate autoregressive (AR) models. We show that imposing stationarity is enough to control the Gaussian complexity without further regularization. This lets us use structural risk…

Generative moment matching networks (GMMNs) are suggested for modeling the cross-sectional dependence between stochastic processes. The stochastic processes considered are geometric Brownian motions and ARMA-GARCH models. Geometric Brownian…

Generative modeling of spatio-temporal fields is crucial for a variety of applications, including stochastic weather generators and climate-model surrogates. However, many such fields exhibit complex dependence structures that vary across…

The real life time series are usually nonstationary, bringing a difficult question of model adaptation. Classical approaches like ARMA-ARCH assume arbitrary type of dependence. To avoid their bias, we will focus on recently proposed…

The Unit-Lindley is a one-parameter family of distributions in $(0,1)$ obtained from an appropriate transformation of the Lindley distribution. In this work, we introduce a class of dynamical time series models for continuous random…

As a special infinite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model can capture much richer temporal patterns than the widely used finite-order VAR model. However, its practicality has long…

It is an important task in the literature to check whether a fitted autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is adequate, while the currently used tests may suffer from the size distortion problem when the underlying autoregressive models…

Multi-output regression models must exploit dependencies between outputs to maximise predictive performance. The application of Gaussian processes (GPs) to this setting typically yields models that are computationally demanding and have…

L\'evy processes are widely used in financial mathematics, telecommunication, economics, queueing theory and natural sciences for modelling. We propose an essentially asymptotically efficient estimation method for the system parameters of…

The autoregressive (AR) models are used to represent the time-varying random process in which output depends linearly on previous terms and a stochastic term (the innovation). In the classical version, the AR models are based on normal…

This paper introduces a spatiotemporal exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (spatiotemporal E-GARCH) model, extending traditional spatiotemporal GARCH models by incorporating asymmetric volatility…

In this paper, we introduce a new spatial model that incorporates heteroscedastic variance depending on neighboring locations. The proposed process is regarded as the spatial equivalent to the temporal autoregressive conditional…

Nonstationarity of real-life time series requires model adaptation. In classical approaches like ARMA-ARCH there is assumed some arbitrarily chosen dependence type. To avoid their bias, we will focus on novel more agnostic approach: moving…

This article proposes omnibus portmanteau tests for contrasting adequacy of time series models. The test statistics are based on combining the autocorrelation function of the conditional residuals, the autocorrelation function of the…

When performing a time series analysis of continuous data, for example from climate or environmental problems, the assumption that the process is Gaussian is often violated. Therefore, we introduce two non-Gaussian autoregressive time…

We introduce graph gamma process (GGP) linear dynamical systems to model real-valued multivariate time series. For temporal pattern discovery, the latent representation under the model is used to decompose the time series into a…

We propose a novel and efficient iterative two-stage variable selection approach for multivariate sparse GLARMA models, which can be used for modelling multivariate discrete-valued time series. Our approach consists in iteratively combining…

We propose a continuous-time Markov-switching generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (COMS-GARCH) process for handling irregularly spaced time series (TS) with multiple volatilities states. We employ a Gibbs sampler in…

Gaussian Graphical Models (GGMs) have wide-ranging applications in machine learning and the natural and social sciences. In most of the settings in which they are applied, the number of observed samples is much smaller than the dimension…

This paper is concerned with some properties of the generalized GARCH models, obtained by extending GARCH models with exogenous variables, the so-called GARCH extended (GARCHX) models. For these, we establish sufficient conditions for some…