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Switching ARMA models greatly enhance the standard linear models to the extent that different ARMA model is allowed in a different regime, and the regime switching is typically assumed a Markov chain on the finite states of potential…

In this paper, non-linear time series models are used to describe volatility in financial time series data. To describe volatility, two of the non-linear time series are combined into form TAR (Threshold Auto-Regressive Model) with AARCH…

Most time-series models assume that the data come from observations that are equally spaced in time. However, this assumption does not hold in many diverse scientific fields, such as astronomy, finance, and climatology, among others. There…

A family of continuous-time generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic processes, generalizing the $\operatorname {COGARCH}(1,1)$ process of Kl\"{u}ppelberg, Lindner and Maller [J. Appl. Probab. 41 (2004) 601--622], is…

As with the advancement of geographical information systems, non-Gaussian spatial data sets are getting larger and more diverse. This study develops a general framework for fast and flexible non-Gaussian regression, especially for…

We present a compartmentalized approach to finding the maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimate of a latent time series that obeys a dynamic stochastic model and is observed through noisy measurements. We specifically consider modern signal…

The object of this paper is to study the asymptotic dependence structure of the linear time series models with infinitely divisible innovations by the use of their characteristic functions. Autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models and…

This paper studies some temporal dependence properties and addresses the issue of parametric estimation for a class of state-dependent autoregressive models for nonlinear time series in which we assume a stochastic autoregressive…

In the past four decades, research on count time series has made significant progress, but research on $\mathbb{Z}$-valued time series is relatively rare. Existing $\mathbb{Z}$-valued models are mainly of autoregressive structure, where the…

Multiplicative error models (MEMs) are commonly used for real-valued time series, but they cannot be applied to discrete-valued count time series as the involved multiplication would not preserve the integer nature of the data. Thus, the…

The conditional autoregressive model is a routinely used statistical model for areal data that arise from, for instances, epidemiological, socio-economic or ecological studies. Various multivariate conditional autoregressive models have…

It is now widely accepted that volatility models have to incorporate the so-called leverage effect in order to to model the dynamics of daily financial returns.We suggest a new class of multivariate power transformed asymmetric models. It…

This paper challenges the dominance of stochastic trend models by introducing the Seasonal-Trend-Stationary ARMA (STSA) framework, which represents univariate nonstationary time series as stationary fluctuations around deterministic trend…

In this work, we consider the class of multi-state autoregressive processes that can be used to model non-stationary time-series of interest. In order to capture different autoregressive (AR) states underlying an observed time series, it is…

In order to calculate the unobserved volatility in conditional heteroscedastic time series models, the natural recursive approximation is very often used. Following \cite{StraumannMikosch2006}, we will call the model \emph{invertible} if…

Time series prediction covers a vast field of every-day statistical applications in medical, environmental and economic domains. In this paper we develop nonparametric prediction strategies based on the combination of a set of 'experts' and…

Time series forecasting (TSF) is essential in various domains, and recent advancements in diffusion-based TSF models have shown considerable promise. However, these models typically adopt traditional diffusion patterns, treating TSF as a…

While there is an increasing amount of literature about Bayesian time series analysis, only a few Bayesian nonparametric approaches to multivariate time series exist. Most methods rely on Whittle's Likelihood, involving the second order…

We consider the strongly consistent question for model selection in a large class of causal time series models, including AR($\infty$), ARCH($\infty$), TARCH($\infty$), ARMA-GARCH and many classical others processes. We propose a penalized…

We introduce a new computational framework for estimating parameters in generalized generalized linear models (GGLM), a class of models that extends the popular generalized linear models (GLM) to account for dependencies among observations…