Related papers: Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average Models w…
The modeling of time-varying graph signals as stationary time-vertex stochastic processes permits the inference of missing signal values by efficiently employing the correlation patterns of the process across different graph nodes and time…
Fitting autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series models requires model identification before parameter estimation. Model identification involves determining the order of the autoregressive and moving average components which is…
In time-series analyses, particularly for finance, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models are widely applied statistical tools for modelling volatility clusters (i.e., periods of increased or decreased…
Generalized additive models (GAMs) provide a way to blend parametric and non-parametric (function approximation) techniques together, making them flexible tools suitable for many modeling problems. For instance, GAMs can be used to…
Estimating conditional quantiles of financial time series is essential for risk management and many other applications in finance. It is well-known that financial time series display conditional heteroscedasticity. Among the large number of…
In the copula-based approach to univariate time series modeling, the finite dimensional temporal dependence of a stationary time series is captured by a copula. Recent studies investigate how copula-based time series models can be…
In this paper an autoregressive time series model with conditional heteroscedasticity is considered, where both conditional mean and conditional variance function are modeled nonparametrically. A test for the model assumption of…
Traditional spatio-temporal models for areal data typically begin with spatial structure imposed at the level of random effects and later extend to include temporal dynamics. We propose an alternative hierarchical modeling framework that…
This paper presents the R package GAS for the analysis of time series under the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) framework of Creal et al. (2013) and Harvey (2013). The distinctive feature of the GAS approach is the use of the score…
This paper examines some probabilistic properties of the class of periodic GARCH processes (PGARCH) which feature periodicity in conditional heteroskedasticity. In these models, the parameters are allowed to switch between different…
AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models are standard for modeling time series exhibiting volatility, with a rich literature in univariate and multivariate settings. In recent years, these models have been extended to…
Graph State Space Models (SSMs) have recently been introduced to enhance Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) in modeling long-range interactions. Despite their success, existing methods either compromise on permutation equivariance or limit their…
Threshold autoregressive moving-average (TARMA) models are popular in time series analysis due to their ability to parsimoniously describe several complex dynamical features. However, neither theory nor estimation methods are currently…
Celestial objects exhibit a wide range of variability in brightness at different wavebands. Surprisingly, the most common methods for characterizing time series in statistics -- parametric autoregressive modeling -- is rarely used to…
There is a serious and long-standing restriction in the literature on heavy-tailed phenomena in that moment conditions, which are unrealistic, are almost always assumed in modelling such phenomena. Further, the issue of stability is often…
In this paper, we study a general class of causal processes with exogenous covariates, including many classical processes such as the ARMA-GARCH, APARCH, ARMAX, GARCH-X and APARCH-X processes. Under some Lipschitz-type conditions, the…
A novel multi-task Gaussian process (GP) framework is proposed, by using a common mean process for sharing information across tasks. In particular, we investigate the problem of time series forecasting, with the objective to improve…
We prove that a time series satisfying a (linear) multivariate autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model satisfies the same model assumption in the reversed time direction, too, if all innovations are normally distributed. This…
This paper proposes the quantile unit-log-symmetric autoregressive moving average (QULS--ARMA) model for bounded time series on the open unit interval $(0,1)$. The model extends the unit-log-symmetric family by introducing a quantile-based…
Existing models for high-dimensional time series are overwhelmingly developed within the finite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) framework. However, the more flexible vector autoregressive moving averages (VARMA) have been much less…