Related papers: An Efficient Bayes Coding Algorithm for the Non-St…

Models for categorical sequences typically assume exchangeable or first-order dependent sequence elements. These are common assumptions, for example, in models of computer malware traces and protein sequences. Although such simplifying…

We develop a new Bayesian modelling framework for the class of higher-order, variable-memory Markov chains, and introduce an associated collection of methodological tools for exact inference with discrete time series. We show that a version…

Variable-length Markov chains (VLMCs) are a flexible class of higher-order Markov models that admit a natural representation as context trees. Existing Bayesian methods for specifying prior distributions on tree structures rely on branching…

We study a problem of model selection for data produced by two different context tree sources. Motivated by linguistic questions, we consider the case where the probabilistic context trees corresponding to the two sources are finite and…

The Bayesian Context Trees (BCT) framework is a recently introduced, general collection of statistical and algorithmic tools for modelling, analysis and inference with discrete-valued time series. The foundation of this development is built…

This paper describes the Context Tree Switching technique, a modification of Context Tree Weighting for the prediction of binary, stationary, n-Markov sources. By modifying Context Tree Weighting's recursive weighting scheme, it is possible…

In this paper we obtain non-uniform exponential upper bounds for the rate of convergence of a version of the algorithm Context, when the underlying tree is not necessarily bounded. The algorithm Context is a well-known tool to estimate the…

A new Bayesian modelling framework is introduced for piece-wise homogeneous variable-memory Markov chains, along with a collection of effective algorithmic tools for change-point detection and segmentation of discrete time series. Building…

In information theory, lossless compression of general data is based on an explicit assumption of a stochastic generative model on target data. However, in lossless image compression, the researchers have mainly focused on the coding…

Quantum computers provide an opportunity to efficiently sample from probability distributions that include non-trivial interference effects between amplitudes. Using a simple process wherein all possible state histories can be specified by…

This paper introduces the Partition Tree Weighting technique, an efficient meta-algorithm for piecewise stationary sources. The technique works by performing Bayesian model averaging over a large class of possible partitions of the data…

We propose a fully Bayesian approach for causal inference with multivariate categorical data based on staged tree models, a class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing asymmetric and context-specific dependencies. To…

In a Bayesian network, we wish to evaluate the marginal probability of a query variable, which may be conditioned on the observed values of some evidence variables. Here we first present our "border algorithm," which converts a BN into a…

We consider the problem of flexible modeling of higher order Markov chains when an upper bound on the order of the chain is known but the true order and nature of the serial dependence are unknown. We propose Bayesian nonparametric…

We address the recently suggested problem of causal lossless coding of a randomly arriving source samples. We construct variable-to-fixed coding schemes and show that they outperform the previously considered fixed-to-variable schemes when…

Few problems in statistics are as perplexing as variable selection in the presence of very many redundant covariates. The variable selection problem is most familiar in parametric environments such as the linear model or additive variants…

In the event of a nuclear accident, or the detonation of a radiological dispersal device, quickly locating the source of the accident or blast is important for emergency response and environmental decontamination. At a specified time after…

Causal discovery from empirical data is a fundamental problem in many scientific domains. Observational data allows for identifiability only up to Markov equivalence class. In this paper we first propose a polynomial time algorithm for…

Given i.i.d. data from an unknown distribution, we consider the problem of predicting future items. An adaptive way to estimate the probability density is to recursively subdivide the domain to an appropriate data-dependent granularity. A…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods provide an elaborate approach to Bayesian inference on complex models, including model choice. Both theoretical arguments and simulation experiments indicate, however, that model posterior…