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Given i.i.d. data from an unknown distribution, we consider the problem of predicting future items. An adaptive way to estimate the probability density is to recursively subdivide the domain to an appropriate data-dependent granularity. A…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-12-30 Marcus Hutter

Bayesian phylogenetic inference is currently done via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with simple proposal mechanisms. This hinders exploration efficiency and often requires long runs to deliver accurate posterior estimates. In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Cheng Zhang , Frederick A. Matsen

Real-valued time series are ubiquitous in the sciences and engineering. In this work, a general, hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework is developed for building mixture models for times series. This development is based, in part, on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-18 Ioannis Papageorgiou , Ioannis Kontoyiannis

We study a variable length Markov chain model associated with a group of stationary processes that share the same context tree but each process has potentially different conditional probabilities. We propose a new model selection and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-01 Alexandre Belloni , Roberto I. Oliveira

In generative models with obscured likelihood, Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is often the tool of last resort for inference. However, ABC demands many prior parameter trials to keep only a small fraction that passes an acceptance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Sean O'Hagan , Jungeum Kim , Veronika Rockova

We present a method for learning the parameters of a Bayesian network with prior knowledge about the signs of influences between variables. Our method accommodates not just the standard signs, but provides for context-specific signs as…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-09 Ad Feelders , Linda C. van der Gaag

We present a new method of transient point source deconvolution for coded-aperture X-Ray detectors. Our method is based upon the calculation of the likelihood function and its interpretation as a probability density for the transient source…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-02-03 Carlo Graziani , Donald Q. Lamb , Raphael Slawinski

An alphabetic binary tree formulation applies to problems in which an outcome needs to be determined via alphabetically ordered search prior to the termination of some window of opportunity. Rather than finding a decision tree minimizing…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2009-03-28 Michael B. Baer

Bayesian Decision Trees are known for their probabilistic interpretability. However, their construction can sometimes be costly. In this article we present a general Bayesian Decision Tree algorithm applicable to both regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-23 Giuseppe Nuti , Lluís Antoni Jiménez Rugama , Andreea-Ingrid Cross

Markov chains with variable length are useful parsimonious stochastic models able to generate most stationary sequence of discrete symbols. The idea is to identify the suffixes of the past, called contexts, that are relevant to predict the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-10 Victor Freguglia , Nancy Garcia

Application of the turbo principle to multiuser decoding results in an exchange of probability distributions between two sets of constraints. Firstly, constraints imposed by the multiple-access channel, and secondly, individual constraints…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2007-07-13 Adriel Kind , Alex Grant

Recognizing handwritten mathematics is a challenging classification problem, requiring simultaneous identification of all the symbols comprising an input as well as the complex two-dimensional relationships between symbols and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-09-19 Scott MacLean , George Labahn

A method was developed for Bayesian inference of species phylogeny using the multi-species coalescent model. To improve the mixing properties of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that traverses the space of species trees, we…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-12-15 Bruce Rannala , Ziheng Yang

Joint distributions over many variables are frequently modeled by decomposing them into products of simpler, lower-dimensional conditional distributions, such as in sparsely connected Bayesian networks. However, automatically learning such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Scott Davies , Andrew Moore

In this paper, we consider the problem of distributed inference in tree based networks. In the framework considered in this paper, distributed nodes make a 1-bit local decision regarding a phenomenon before sending it to the fusion center…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-17 Bhavya Kailkhura , Aditya Vempaty , Pramod K. Varshney

We consider the inference of the structure of an undirected graphical model in an exact Bayesian framework. More specifically we aim at achieving the inference with close-form posteriors, avoiding any sampling step. This task would be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-02 Loïc Schwaller , Stéphane Robin , Michael Stumpf

Coloured probability tree models are statistical models coding conditional independence between events depicted in a tree graph. They are more general than the very important class of context-specific Bayesian networks. In this paper, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-16 Eliana Duarte , Christiane Görgen

Bayesian regression trees are flexible non-parametric models that are well suited to many modern statistical regression problems. Many such tree models have been proposed, from the simple single- tree model to more complex tree ensembles.…

Computation · Statistics 2013-12-09 M. T. Pratola

Determining subgroups that respond especially well (or poorly) to specific interventions (medical or policy) requires new supervised learning methods tailored specifically for causal inference. Bayesian Causal Forest (BCF) is a recent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-16 Nikolay Krantsevich , Jingyu He , P. Richard Hahn

Decision trees are commonly used predictive models due to their flexibility and interpretability. This paper is directed at quantifying the uncertainty of decision tree predictions by employing a Bayesian inference approach. This is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-28 Jodie A. Cochrane , Adrian Wills , Sarah J. Johnson