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Data describing human interactions often suffer from incomplete sampling of the underlying population. As a consequence, the study of contagion processes using data-driven models can lead to a severe underestimation of the epidemic risk.…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-11-19 Mathieu Génois , Christian L. Vestergaard , Ciro Cattuto , Alain Barrat

The study of epidemic spreading on populations of networked individuals has seen recently a great deal of significant progresses. A common point of all past studies is, however, that there is only one peak of infected density in each single…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-05-09 Muhua Zheng , Wei Wang , Ming Tang , Jie Zhou , S. Boccaletti , Zonghua Liu

We study the problem of a policymaker who aims at taming the spread of an epidemic while minimizing its associated social costs. The main feature of our model lies in the fact that the disease's transmission rate is a diffusive stochastic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-11-04 Salvatore Federico , Giorgio Ferrari

We analyze an epidemic model on a network consisting of susceptible-infected-recovered equations at the nodes coupled by diffusion using a graph Laplacian. We introduce an epidemic criterion and examine different vaccination/containment…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-09-25 F. Bustamante-Castaneda , J. -G. Caputo , G. Cruz-Pacheco , A. Knippel , F. Mouatamide

Network surveys of key populations at risk for HIV are an essential part of the effort to understand how the epidemic spreads and how it can be prevented. Estimation of population values from the sample data has been probematical, however,…

Applications · Statistics 2019-09-12 Steve Thompson

The outbreak of a pandemic, such as COVID-19, causes major health crises worldwide. Typical measures to contain the rapid spread usually include effective vaccination and strict interventions (Nature Human Behaviour, 2021). Motivated by…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-03-31 Gargi Bakshi , Sujoy Bhore , Suraj Shetiya

A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…

Applications · Statistics 2009-08-17 Tom Britton , Theodore Kypraios , Philip O'Neill

Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-09-01 Rahul Mishra , Hari Prabhat Gupta , Tanima Dutta

We explore the dependence structure in the sampled sequence of large networks. We consider randomized algorithms to sample the nodes and study extremal properties in any associated stationary sequence of characteristics of interest like…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-02-25 Konstantin Avrachenkov , Natalia M. Markovich , Jithin K. Sreedharan

We study the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of epidemics in the vicinity of the threshold infectivity. We derive the distribution of total outbreak size in the limit of large population size $N$. This is accomplished by mapping the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-11-13 David A. Kessler , Nadav M. Shnerb

Viral spread on large graphs has many real-life applications such as malware propagation in computer networks and rumor (or misinformation) spread in Twitter-like online social networks. Although viral spread on large graphs has been…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-09 Milan Bradonjić , Michael Molloy , Guanhua Yan

We consider two approaches to study the spread of infectious diseases within a spatially structured population distributed in social clusters. According whether we consider only the population of infected individuals or both populations of…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-10-30 Lamia Belhadji

Many progresses in the understanding of epidemic spreading models have been obtained thanks to numerous modeling efforts and analytical and numerical studies, considering host populations with very different structures and properties,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-02-02 Antoine Moinet , Alain Barrat , Romualdo Pastor Satorras

Weight distribution largely impacts the epidemic spreading taking place on top of networks. This paper studies a susceptible-infected-susceptible model on regular random networks with different kinds of weight distributions. Simulation…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-07-16 Zimo Yang , Tao Zhou

Contacts between individuals play an important role in determining how infectious diseases spread. Various methods to gather data on such contacts co-exist, from surveys to wearable sensors. Comparisons of data obtained by different methods…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-04-18 Julie Fournet , Alain Barrat

Spreading processes are often modelled as a stochastic dynamics occurring on top of a given network with edge weights corresponding to the transmission probabilities. Knowledge of veracious transmission probabilities is essential for…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-09-01 Andrey Y. Lokhov

We study the following model of disease spread in a social network. At first, all individuals are either infected or healthy. Next, in discrete rounds, the disease spreads in the network from infected to healthy individuals such that a…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2024-09-04 Michal Dvořák , Dušan Knop , Šimon Schierreich

The time variation of contacts in a networked system may fundamentally alter the properties of spreading processes and affect the condition for large-scale propagation, as encoded in the epidemic threshold. Despite the great interest in the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-04-14 Eugenio Valdano , Luca Ferreri , Chiara Poletto , Vittoria Colizza

During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models of epidemic spreading have emerged as powerful tools to produce valuable predictions of the evolution of the pandemic, helping public health authorities decide which intervention…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-11-18 Lorenzo Zino , Ming Cao

Epidemic models are used to analyze the progression or outcome of an epidemic under different control policies like vaccinations, quarantines, lockdowns, use of face-masks, pharmaceutical interventions, etc. When these models accurately…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-04-19 Carlos Hernandez-Suarez , Osval Montsinos Lopez , Ramon Solano-Barajas