Related papers: Probabilistic Modeling of Hurricane Wind-Induced D…
Numerous early warning systems based on rainfall measurements have been designed over the last decades to forecast the onset of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. However, their use over large areas poses challenges due to uncertainties…
Modern society is critically dependent on the services provided by engineered infrastructure networks. When natural disasters (e.g. Hurricane Sandy) occur, the ability of these networks to provide service is often degraded because of…
The increasing integration of renewable energy, particularly offshore wind, introduces significant uncertainty into hybrid AC-HVDC systems due to forecast errors and power fluctuations. Conventional control strategies typically rely on…
In order to increase the resilience of distribution systems against high-impact low-probability (HILP) events, it is important to prioritize the damaged assets so that the lost loads, especially critical and important loads, can be restored…
Inflexible combined heat and power (CHP) plants and uncertain wind power production result in excess power in distribution networks, which leads to inverse power flow challenging grid operations. Power-to-X facilities such as electrolysers…
Communication networks are vulnerable to natural disasters, such as earthquakes or floods, as well as to physical attacks, such as an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) attack. Such real-world events happen at specific geographical locations and…
The operation of power systems is affected by diverse technical, economic and social factors. Social behaviour determines load patterns, electricity markets regulate the generation and weather-dependent renewables introduce power…
A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode…
The fate of cities under natural hazards depends not only on hazard intensity but also on the coupling of structural damage, a collective process that remains poorly understood. Here we show that urban structural damage exhibits…
This paper presents a methodology for freight traffic assignment in a large-scale road-rail intermodal network under uncertainty. Network uncertainties caused by natural disasters have dramatically increased in recent years. Several of…
For large-scale power networks, the failure of particular transmission lines can offload power to other lines and cause self-protection trips to activate, instigating a cascade of line failures. In extreme cases, this can bring down the…
Wind hazards such as tornadoes and straight-line winds frequently affect vulnerable communities in the Great Plains of the United States, where limited infrastructure and sparse data coverage hinder effective emergency response. Existing…
In this paper, our proposal consists of incorporating frailty into a statistical methodology for modeling time-to-event data, based on non-proportional hazards regression model. Specifically, we use the generalized time-dependent logistic…
Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…
Intermittency in fluid turbulence can be emphasized through the analysis of Probability Distribution Functions (PDF) for velocity fluctuations, which display a strong non-gaussian behavior at small scales. Castaing et al. (1990) have…
This paper presents a method for probabilistic wind power forecasting that quantifies and integrates uncertainties from weather forecasts and weather-to-power conversion. By addressing both uncertainty sources, the method achieves…
This tutorial contrasts probabilistic modeling and robust optimization to determine decisions in humanitarian logistics, specifically supply chains subject to adversarial (natural and human) disruptions. Natural disruptions induce dispatch…
We consider the problem of predicting power outages in an electrical power grid due to hazards produced by convective storms. These storms produce extreme weather phenomena such as intense wind, tornadoes and lightning over a small area. In…
The failure of overhead transmission lines in the United States can lead to significant economic losses and widespread blackouts, affecting the lives of millions. This study focuses on the reliability of transmission lines, specifically…
Hurricanes cause significant economic and human costs, requiring individuals to make critical evacuation decisions under uncertainty and stress. To enhance the understanding of this decision-making process, we propose using Bayesian…