Related papers: Probabilistic Modeling of Hurricane Wind-Induced D…
With the increasing frequency of natural disasters, operators must prioritize improvements in the existing electric power grid infrastructure to enhance the resilience of the grid. Resilience to extreme weather events necessitates lowering…
Several aspects influence corrosive processes in RC structures, such as environmental conditions, structural geometry, and mechanical properties. Since these aspects present large randomnesses, probabilistic models allow a more accurate…
Short-term probabilistic wind power forecasting can provide critical quantified uncertainty information of wind generation for power system operation and control. As the complicated characteristics of wind power prediction error, it would…
Modern economies depend critically on high-voltage power transmission networks. Yet this infrastructure is routinely disrupted by natural hazards ranging from earthquakes and floods to tornadoes and geomagnetic storms. Risk assessments have…
Evaluating resilience in electric distribution systems under severe weather requires models that can connect network topology, hazard simulation, fragility modeling, restoration assumptions, repair strategy, and downstream consequences.…
Smart grids are envisioned to accommodate high penetration of distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation, which may cause adverse grid impacts in terms of voltage violations. Therefore, PV Hosting capacity (HC) is being used as a planning…
Modelling wildfire occurrences is important for disaster management including prevention, detection and suppression of large catastrophic events. We present a spatial Poisson hurdle model for exploring geographical variation of monthly…
The reliable power system operation is a major goal for electric utilities, which requires the accurate reliability forecasting to minimize the duration of power interruptions. Since weather conditions are usually the leading causes for…
A probabilistic approach to phase-field brittle and ductile fracture with random material and geometric properties is proposed within this work. In the macroscopic failure mechanics, materials properties and exactness of spatial quantities…
The safety and resilience of civil infrastructure systems are increasingly threatened by compounded risks from various hazard events and structural deterioration due to environmental stressors. This study presents a comprehensive…
Storm surge and waves are responsible for a substantial portion of tropical and extratropical cyclones-related damages. While high-fidelity numerical models have significantly advanced the simulation accuracy of storm surge and waves, they…
The future energy system will largely depend on volatile renewable energy sources and temperature-dependent loads, which makes the weather a central influencing factor. This article presents a novel approach for simulating weather scenarios…
Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision-making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting…
The aim of this article is to analyze data from multiple repairable systems under the presence of dependent competing risks. In order to model this dependence structure, we adopted the well-known shared frailty model. This model provides a…
Natural Disasters like hurricanes, floods or earthquakes can damage power grid devices and create cascading blackouts and islands. The nature of failure propagation and extent of damage is dependent on the structural features of the grid,…
Heteroscedastic Gaussian process regression, based on the concept of chained Gaussian processes, is used to build surrogates to predict site-specific loads on an offshore wind turbine. Stochasticity in the inflow turbulence and irregular…
Accurate prediction of tropical cyclones remains a major challenge for both numerical weather prediction and emerging artificial intelligence weather prediction systems. While recent global AI models have demonstrated strong skill in…
Understanding the spatiotemporal road network accessibility during a hurricane evacuation, the level of ease of residents in an area in reaching evacuation destination sites through the road network, is a critical component of emergency…
Wind is one of the important reasonable resources. However, wind turbine towers are sure to be threatened by hurricanes. In this paper, method to estimate the number of wind turbine towers that would be buckled by hurricanes is discussed.…
In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold…