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We propose two nonparametric statistical tests of goodness of fit for conditional distributions: given a conditional probability density function $p(y|x)$ and a joint sample, decide whether the sample is drawn from $p(y|x)r_x(x)$ for some…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-01 Wittawat Jitkrittum , Heishiro Kanagawa , Bernhard Schölkopf

We consider regression in which one predicts a response $Y$ with a set of predictors $X$ across different experiments or environments. This is a common setup in many data-driven scientific fields and we argue that statistical inference can…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-23 Niklas Pfister , Evan G. Williams , Jonas Peters , Ruedi Aebersold , Peter Bühlmann

We propose a robust method for constructing conditionally valid prediction intervals based on models for conditional distributions such as quantile and distribution regression. Our approach can be applied to important prediction problems…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-26 Victor Chernozhukov , Kaspar Wüthrich , Yinchu Zhu

Conventional multiclass conditional probability estimation methods, such as Fisher's discriminate analysis and logistic regression, often require restrictive distributional model assumption. In this paper, a model-free estimation method is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-08-02 Tu Xu , Junhui Wang

Traditional parametric econometric models often rely on rigid functional forms, while nonparametric techniques, despite their flexibility, frequently lack interpretability. This paper proposes a parsimonious alternative by modeling the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-20 Ricardo Masini , Marcelo Medeiros

We study causal inference in a multi-environment setting, in which the functional relations for producing the variables from their direct causes remain the same across environments, while the distribution of exogenous noises may vary. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-29 AmirEmad Ghassami , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash , Kun Zhang

We consider an estimation problem of expected functionals of a general random element that values in a metric space. If the functional forms an explicit function of some unknown parameters, we can estimate it by plugging-in a suitable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-02 Yasutaka Shimizu

We derive the exact asymptotic distribution of the conditional likelihood-ratio test in instrumental variables regression under weak instrument asymptotics and for multiple endogenous variables. The distribution is conditional on all…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-09 Malte Londschien

Many causal estimands are only partially identifiable since they depend on the unobservable joint distribution between potential outcomes. Stratification on pretreatment covariates can yield sharper bounds; however, unless the covariates…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-19 Wenlong Ji , Lihua Lei , Asher Spector

A residual-based empirical distribution function is proposed to estimate the distribution function of the errors of a heteroskedastic nonparametric regression with responses missing at random based on completely observed data, and this…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-28 Justin Chown

Semicontinuous outcomes commonly arise in a wide variety of fields, such as insurance claims, healthcare expenditures, rainfall amounts, and alcohol consumption. Regression models, including Tobit, Tweedie, and two-part models, are widely…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-26 Lu Yang

Doubly robust estimators of causal effects are a popular means of estimating causal effects. Such estimators combine an estimate of the conditional mean of the outcome given treatment and confounders (the so-called outcome regression) with…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-17 David Benkeser , Weixin Cai , Mark J van der Laan

Performative predictions are forecasts which influence the outcomes they aim to predict, undermining the existence of correct forecasts and standard methods of elicitation and estimation. We show that conditioning forecasts on covariates…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-27 Philip Boeken , Onno Zoeter , Joris M. Mooij

In this work, the issue of obtaining consistent parameter estimators for nonlinear regression models where the regressors are second-order modulus functions is explored. It is shown that consistent instrumental variable estimators can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-12 Fredrik Ljungberg , Martin Enqvist

Additive regression provides an extension of linear regression by modeling the signal of a response as a sum of functions of covariates of relatively low complexity. We study penalized estimation in high-dimensional nonparametric additive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-25 Zhiqiang Tan , Cun-Hui Zhang

Many conventional statistical procedures are extremely sensitive to seemingly minor deviations from modeling assumptions. This problem is exacerbated in modern high-dimensional settings, where the problem dimension can grow with and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-27 Simon S. Du , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Aarti Singh

We employ distribution regression (DR) to estimate the joint distribution of two outcome variables conditional on chosen covariates. While Bivariate Distribution Regression (BDR) is useful in a variety of settings, it is particularly…

For sequentially observed functional data exhibiting multiple change points in the mean function, we establish consistency results for the estimated number and locations of the change points based on the norm of the functional CUSUM process…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-03 Gregory Rice , Chi Zhang

Traditional functional linear regression usually takes a one-dimensional functional predictor as input and estimates the continuous coefficient function. Modern applications often generate two-dimensional covariates, which become matrices…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Dan Yang , Jianlong Shao , Haipeng Shen , Hongtu Zhu

This paper explores strong and weak consistency of M-estimators for non-identically distributed data, extending prior work. Emphasis is given to scenarios where data is viewed as a triangular array, which encompasses distributional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-17 Axel Bücher , Johan Segers , Torben Staud
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