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Markov switching models are often used to analyze financial returns because of their ability to capture frequently observed stylized facts. In this paper we consider a multivariate Student-t version of the model as a viable alternative to…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-04 Mauro Bernardi , Antonello Maruotti , Lea Petrella

This paper develops a generalization of Brownian motion with stationary, autocorrelated increments as a tractable model for problems in business and finance. We show that any real continuous Gaussian Markov process with stationary…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-12-03 Kerry Fendick

In this work we construct compositions of processes of the form \bm{S}_n^{2\beta}(c^2 \mathpzc{L}^\nu (t) \r, t>0, \nu \in (0, 1/2], \beta \in (0,1], n \in \mathbb{N}, whose distribution is related to space-time fractional n-dimensional…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-23 Mirko D'Ovidio , Enzo Orsingher , Bruno Toaldo

Stochastic reduced-order models are widely used to represent the effective dynamics of complex systems, but estimating their drift and diffusion coefficients from data remains challenging. Standard approaches often rely on short-time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-28 Ludovico T. Giorgini

We use the two-time scale subordination in order to describe dynamical processes in continuous media with a long-term memory. Our consideration touches two physical examples in detail. First we study a temporal evolution of the species…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-11-15 Aleksander Stanislavsky , Karina Weron

Starting from inhomogeneous time scaling and linear decorrelation between successive price returns, Baldovin and Stella recently proposed a way to build a model describing the time evolution of a financial index. We first make it fully…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-09-29 Damien Challet , Pier Paolo Peirano

Ba\~nuelos and Bogdan (2004) and Bogdan, Palmowski and Wang (2016) analyse the asymptotic tail distribution of the first time a stable (L\'evy) process in dimension $d\geq 2$ exists a cone. We use these results to develop the notion of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-23 Andreas E. Kyprianou , Victor Rivero , Weerapat Satitkanitkul

Layered stable (multivariate) distributions and processes are defined and studied. A layered stable process combines stable trends of two different indices, one of them possibly Gaussian. More precisely, in short time, it is close to a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-11 C. Houdré , R. Kawai

In this article, we show that a general class of weakly stationary time series can be modeled applying Gaussian subordinated processes. We show that, for any given weakly stationary time series $(z_t)_{z\in\mathbb{N}}$ with given equal…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-24 Lauri Viitasaari , Pauliina Ilmonen

Continuous time random walks impose a random waiting time before each particle jump. Scaling limits of heavy tailed continuous time random walks are governed by fractional evolution equations. Space-fractional derivatives describe heavy…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-25 Mark M. Meerschaert , Erkan Nane , Yimin Xiao

In this paper we investigate the long time behavior of solutions to fractional in time evolution equations which appear as results of random time changes in Markov processes. We consider inverse subordinators as random times and use the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-25 Anatoly N. Kochubei , Yuri Kondratiev , José L. da Silva

In quantitative finance, we often model asset prices as a noisy Ito semimartingale. As this model is not identifiable, approximating by a time-changed Levy process can be useful for generative modelling. We give a new estimate of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-11-17 Adam D. Bull

This paper studies stabilities of stochastic differential equation (SDE) driven by time-changed L\'evy noise in both probability and moment sense. This provides more flexibility in modeling schemes in application areas including physics,…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-27 Erkan Nane , Yinan Ni

It is shown that under a certain condition on a semimartingale and a time-change, any stochastic integral driven by the time-changed semimartingale is a time-changed stochastic integral driven by the original semimartingale. As a direct…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-10-26 Kei Kobayashi

In this paper, we first define the multivariate tempered space-fractional Poisson process (MTSFPP) by time-changing the multivariate Poisson process with an independent tempered {\alpha}-stable subordinator. Its distributional properties,…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-24 Ashok Kumar Pathak , Ritik Soni

Computing properties of molecular systems rely on estimating expectations of the (unnormalized) Boltzmann distribution. Molecular dynamics (MD) is a broadly adopted technique to approximate such quantities. However, stable simulations rely…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-10-31 Mathias Schreiner , Ole Winther , Simon Olsson

We provide series expansions for the tempered stable densities and for the price of European-style contracts in the exponential L\'evy model driven by the tempered stable process. These formulas recover several popular option pricing…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-03 Gaetano Agazzotti , Jean-Philippe Aguilar

The sub-fractional Brownian motion (sfBm) is a stochastic process, characterized by non-stationarity in their increments and long-range dependency, considered as an intermediate step between the standard Brownian motion (Bm) and the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-04-09 Axel A. Araneda , Nils Bertschinger

This paper studies theory and inference related to a class of time series models that incorporates nonlinear dynamics. It is assumed that the observations follow a one-parameter exponential family of distributions given an accompanying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-04-19 Richard A. Davis , Heng Liu

We consider a class of tempered subordinators, namely a class of subordinators with one-dimensional marginal tempered distributions which belong to a family studied in [3]. The main contribution in this paper is a non-central moderate…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-05 Nikolai Leonenko , Claudio Macci , Barbara Pacchiarotti
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