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We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach for the noise reduction of a given chaotic time series contaminated by dynamical noise, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). The underlying unknown noise process (possibly) exhibits…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-04 Konstantinos Kaloudis , Spyridon J. Hatjispyros

We study fault identification in discrete-time nonlinear systems subject to additive Gaussian white noise. We introduce a Bayesian framework that explicitly accounts for unmodeled faults under reasonable assumptions. Our approach hinges on…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-08 Chun-Wei Kong , Jay McMahon , Morteza Lahijanian

A variety of complex biological, natural and man-made systems exhibit non-Markovian dynamics that can be modeled through fractional order differential equations, yet, we lack sample comlexity aware system identification strategies. Towards…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-23 Xiaole Zhang , Vijay Gupta , Paul Bogdan

In this article, an overview of Bayesian methods for sequential simulation from posterior distributions of nonlinear and non-Gaussian dynamic systems is presented. The focus is mainly laid on sequential Monte Carlo methods, which are based…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-28 Konstantinos E. Tatsis , Vasilis K. Dertimanis , Eleni N. Chatzi

Modeling real-world systems requires accounting for noise - whether it arises from unpredictable fluctuations in financial markets, irregular rhythms in biological systems, or environmental variability in ecosystems. While the behavior of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Matteo Bosso , Giovanni Franzese , Kushal Swamy , Maarten Theulings , Alejandro M. Aragón , Farbod Alijani

Stochastic dynamical systems are ubiquitous in physics, biology, and engineering, where both deterministic drifts and random fluctuations govern system behavior. Learning these dynamics from data is particularly challenging in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Ziheng Guo , Igor Cialenco , Ming Zhong

This study presents a Bayesian maximum \textit{a~posteriori} (MAP) framework for dynamical system identification from time-series data. This is shown to be equivalent to a generalized Tikhonov regularization, providing a rational…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-29 Robert K. Niven , Laurent Cordier , Ali Mohammad-Djafari , Markus Abel , Markus Quade

We propose an algorithm to actively estimate the parameters of a linear dynamical system. Given complete control over the system's input, our algorithm adaptively chooses the inputs to accelerate estimation. We show a finite time bound…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-23 Andrew Wagenmaker , Kevin Jamieson

The paper introduces a novel methodology for the identification of coefficients of switched autoregressive linear models. We consider the case when the system's outputs are contaminated by possibly large values of measurement noise. It is…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-03-27 Sarah Hojjatinia , Constantino M. Lagoa , Fabrizio Dabbene

The problem of determining the mathematical model of the dynamics of multi-dimensional control systems in the presence of noise under the condition that the correlation functions cannot be found. Known statistical dynamics of linear systems…

General Mathematics · Mathematics 2013-01-29 V. N. Tibabishev

The ubiquity of multiscale interactions in complex systems is well-recognized, with development and heredity serving as a prime example of how processes at different temporal scales influence one another. This work introduces a novel…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-04 Nayely Vélez-Cruz , Manfred D. Laubichler

The decreasing cost and improved sensor and monitoring system technology (e.g. fiber optics and strain gauges) have led to more measurements in close proximity to each other. When using such spatially dense measurement data in Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-21 Ioannis Koune , Arpad Rozsas , Arthur Slobbe , Alice Cicirello

In networks of dynamic systems, one challenge is to identify the interconnection structure on the basis of measured signals. Inspired by a Bayesian approach in [1], in this paper, we explore a Bayesian model selection method for identifying…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Shengling Shi , Giulio Bottegal , Paul M. J. Van den Hof

State estimation of dynamical systems is crucial for providing new decision-making and system automation information in different applications. However, the assumptions on the standard computational models for sensor measurements can be…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-25 Aamir Hussain Chughtai , Arslan Majal , Muhammad Tahir , Momin Uppal

We develop a method for reconstructing regulatory interconnection networks between variables evolving according to a linear dynamical system. The work is motivated by the problem of gene regulatory network inference, that is, finding causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-19 Atte Aalto , Jorge Goncalves

In this paper, we consider discrete-time non-linear stochastic dynamical systems with additive process noise in which both the initial state and noise distributions are uncertain. Our goal is to quantify how the uncertainty in these…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-19 Steven Adams , Eduardo Figueiredo , Luca Laurenti

High-throughput data analyses are becoming common in biology, communications, economics and sociology. The vast amounts of data are usually represented in the form of matrices and can be considered as knowledge networks. Spectra-based…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2010-01-06 Viet-Anh Nguyen , Zdena Koukolikova-Nicola , Franco Bagnoli , Pietro Lio

This paper addresses the problem of learning linear dynamical systems from noisy observations. In this setting, existing algorithms either yield biased parameter estimates or have large sample complexities. We resolve these issues by…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-08 Yuyang Zhang , Xinhe Zhang , Jia Liu , Na Li

Dynamical systems modeling, particularly via systems of ordinary differential equations, has been used to effectively capture the temporal behavior of different biochemical components in signal transduction networks. Despite the recent…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-01-06 Nathaniel J. Linden , Boris Kramer , Padmini Rangamani

Time-varying linear state-space models are powerful tools for obtaining mathematically interpretable representations of neural signals. For example, switching and decomposed models describe complex systems using latent variables that evolve…