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Estimating out-of-sample risk for models trained on large high-dimensional datasets is an expensive but essential part of the machine learning process, enabling practitioners to optimally tune hyperparameters. Cross-validation (CV) serves…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-28 Parth Nobel , Daniel LeJeune , Emmanuel J. Candès

In system identification, estimating parameters of a model using limited observations results in poor identifiability. To cope with this issue, we propose a new method to simultaneously select and estimate sensitive parameters as key model…

Existing optimal estimators of nonequilibrium path-ensemble averages are shown to fall within the framework of extended bridge sampling. Using this framework, we derive a general minimal-variance estimator that can combine nonequilibrium…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-12-06 David D. L. Minh , John D. Chodera

Careful tuning of a regularization parameter is indispensable in many machine learning tasks because it has a significant impact on generalization performances. Nevertheless, current practice of regularization parameter tuning is more of an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-23 Atsushi Shibagaki , Yoshiki Suzuki , Masayuki Karasuyama , Ichiro Takeuchi

We investigate high-dimensional nonconvex penalized regression, where the number of covariates may grow at an exponential rate. Although recent asymptotic theory established that there exists a local minimum possessing the oracle property…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-21 Lan Wang , Yongdai Kim , Runze Li

Monte Carlo approximations for random linear elliptic PDE constrained optimization problems are studied. We use empirical process theory to obtain best possible mean convergence rates $O(n^{-\frac{1}{2}})$ for optimal values and solutions,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-14 Werner Römisch , Thomas M. Surowiec

We study the least squares estimator in the residual variance estimation context. We show that the mean squared differences of paired observations are asymptotically normally distributed. We further establish that, by regressing the mean…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-12 Tiejun Tong , Yanyuan Ma , Yuedong Wang

We address the inference problem concerning regression coefficients in a classical linear regression model using least squares estimates. The analysis is conducted under circumstances where network dependency exists across units in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-03 Jing Lei , Kehui Chen , Haeun Moon

Many varieties of cross validation would be statistically appealing for the estimation of smoothing and other penalized regression hyperparameters, were it not for the high cost of evaluating such criteria. Here it is shown how to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-06 Simon N. Wood

The problem of astrometry is revisited from the perspective of analyzing the attainability of well-known performance limits (the Cramer-Rao bound) for the estimation of the relative position of light-emitting (usually point-like) sources on…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-09-05 Sebastian Espinosa , Jorge F. Silva , Rene A. Mendez , Rodrigo Lobos , Marcos Orchard

Tuning parameters are parameters involved in an estimating procedure for the purpose of reducing the risk of some other estimator. Examples include the degree of penalization in penalized regression and likelihood problems, as well as the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-31 Ingrid Dæhlen , Nils Lid Hjort , Ingrid Hobæk Haff

Mixed-effect models are widely used for the analysis of correlated data such as longitudinal data and repeated measures. In this article, we study an approach to the nonparametric estimation of mixed-effect models. We consider models with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Chong Gu , Ping Ma

Misspecified models often provide useful information about the true data generating distribution. For example, if $y$ is a non-linear function of $x$ the least squares estimator $\hat{\beta}$ is an estimate of $\beta$, the slope of the best…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-17 James P. Long

A multiple interval-valued linear regression model considering all the cross-relationships between the mids and spreads of the intervals has been introduced recently. A least-squares estimation of the regression parameters has been carried…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-09 Marta García Bárzana , Ana Colubi , Erricos John Kontoghiorghes

An important challenge in statistical analysis concerns the control of the finite sample bias of estimators. This problem is magnified in high-dimensional settings where the number of variables $p$ diverges with the sample size $n$, as well…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-21 Stéphane Guerrier , Mucyo Karemera , Samuel Orso , Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser

We investigate the accuracy of the two most common estimators for the maximum expected value of a general set of random variables: a generalization of the maximum sample average, and cross validation. No unbiased estimator exists and we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-03-04 Hado van Hasselt

This paper investigates the optimality analysis of the recursive least-squares (RLS) algorithm for autoregressive systems with exogenous inputs (ARX systems). A key challenge in analyzing is managing the potential unboundedness of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-27 Xingrui Liu , Jieming Ke , Yanlong Zhao

Model averaging (MA) and ensembling play a crucial role in statistical and machine learning practice. When multiple candidate models are considered, MA techniques can be used to weight and combine them, often resulting in improved…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-06 Jingfu Peng

We investigate optimal subsampling for quantile regression. We derive the asymptotic distribution of a general subsampling estimator and then derive two versions of optimal subsampling probabilities. One version minimizes the trace of the…

Computation · Statistics 2020-01-29 HaiYing Wang , Yanyuan Ma

In this paper, for Lasso penalized linear regression models in high-dimensional settings, we propose a modified cross-validation method for selecting the penalty parameter. The methodology is extended to other penalties, such as Elastic…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-09-10 Yi Yu , Yang Feng