English

RandALO: Out-of-sample risk estimation in no time flat

Statistics Theory 2025-04-28 v2 Machine Learning Optimization and Control Computation Machine Learning Statistics Theory

Abstract

Estimating out-of-sample risk for models trained on large high-dimensional datasets is an expensive but essential part of the machine learning process, enabling practitioners to optimally tune hyperparameters. Cross-validation (CV) serves as the de facto standard for risk estimation but poorly trades off high bias (KK-fold CV) for computational cost (leave-one-out CV). We propose a randomized approximate leave-one-out (RandALO) risk estimator that is not only a consistent estimator of risk in high dimensions but also less computationally expensive than KK-fold CV. We support our claims with extensive simulations on synthetic and real data and provide a user-friendly Python package implementing RandALO available on PyPI as randalo and at https://github.com/cvxgrp/randalo.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2409.09781,
  title  = {RandALO: Out-of-sample risk estimation in no time flat},
  author = {Parth Nobel and Daniel LeJeune and Emmanuel J. Candès},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2409.09781},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

26 pages, 10 figures