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The paper considers the problem of out-of-sample risk estimation under the high dimensional settings where standard techniques such as $K$-fold cross validation suffer from large biases. Motivated by the low bias of the leave-one-out cross…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-12 Kamiar Rahnama Rad , Arian Maleki

Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is a popular method for estimating out-of-sample predictive accuracy. However, computing LOO-CV criteria can be computationally expensive due to the need to fit the model multiple times. In the…

Computation · Statistics 2023-09-28 Luca Silva , Giacomo Zanella

We study the problem of out-of-sample risk estimation in the high dimensional regime where both the sample size $n$ and number of features $p$ are large, and $n/p$ can be less than one. Extensive empirical evidence confirms the accuracy of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-05 Kamiar Rahnama Rad , Wenda Zhou , Arian Maleki

Despite a large and significant body of recent work focused on estimating the out-of-sample risk of regularized models in the high dimensional regime, a theoretical understanding of this problem for non-differentiable penalties such as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-15 Haolin Zou , Arnab Auddy , Kamiar Rahnama Rad , Arian Maleki

Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) can be particularly accurate among cross-validation (CV) variants for machine learning assessment tasks -- e.g., assessing methods' error or variability. But it is expensive to re-fit a model $N$ times…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-24 William T. Stephenson , Tamara Broderick

Cross-validation (CV) is a technique for evaluating the ability of statistical models/learning systems based on a given data set. Despite its wide applicability, the rather heavy computational cost can prevent its use as the system size…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-26 Yoshiyuki Kabashima , Tomoyuki Obuchi , Makoto Uemura

Cross-validation (CV) is a common method to tune machine learning methods and can be used for model selection in regression as well. Because of the structured nature of small, traditional experimental designs, the literature has warned…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-18 Maria L. Weese , Byran J. Smucker , David J. Edwards

We analyze the performance of cross-validation (CV) in the density estimation framework with two purposes: (i) risk estimation and (ii) model selection. The main focus is given to the so-called leave-$p$-out CV procedure (Lpo), where $p$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-02 Alain Celisse

Cross-validation (CV) is routinely used across the sciences to select models and tune parameters, and the resulting choices are often interpreted as substantive scientific conclusions (e.g., which variables, mechanisms, or risk factors are…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Kenichiro McAlinn , Kōsaku Takanashi

Approximate Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (ALO-CV) is a method that has been proposed to estimate the generalization error of a regularized estimator in the high-dimensional regime where dimension and sample size are of the same order, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-13 Pierre C Bellec

We conduct a non asymptotic study of the Cross Validation (CV) estimate of the generalization risk for learning algorithms dedicated to extreme regions of the covariates space. In this Extreme Value Analysis context, the risk function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-12 Anass Aghbalou , Patrice Bertail , François Portier , Anne Sabourin

We establish a general upper bound for $K$-fold cross-validation ($K$-CV) errors that can be adapted to many $K$-CV-based estimators and learning algorithms. Based on Rademacher complexity of the model and the Orlicz-$\Psi_{\nu}$ norm of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-31 Ning Xu , Timothy C. G. Fisher , Jian Hong

The out-of-sample error (OO) is the main quantity of interest in risk estimation and model selection. Leave-one-out cross validation (LO) offers a (nearly) distribution-free yet computationally demanding approach to estimate OO. Recent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-27 Arnab Auddy , Haolin Zou , Kamiar Rahnama Rad , Arian Maleki

As the main workhorse for model selection, Cross Validation (CV) has achieved an empirical success due to its simplicity and intuitiveness. However, despite its ubiquitous role, CV often falls into the following notorious dilemmas. On the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-29 Weikai Li , Chuanxing Geng , Songcan Chen

Risk estimation is at the core of many learning systems. The importance of this problem has motivated researchers to propose different schemes, such as cross validation, generalized cross validation, and Bootstrap. The theoretical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-19 Ji Xu , Arian Maleki , Kamiar Rahnama Rad , Daniel Hsu

One of the common goals of time series analysis is to use the observed series to inform predictions for future observations. In the absence of any actual new data to predict, cross-validation can be used to estimate a model's future…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-02 Paul-Christian Bürkner , Jonah Gabry , Aki Vehtari

As a technique that can compactly represent complex patterns, machine learning has significant potential for predictive inference. K-fold cross-validation (CV) is the most common approach to ascertaining the likelihood that a machine…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-24 Juan M Gorriz , R. Martin Clemente , F Segovia , J Ramirez , A Ortiz , J. Suckling

Cross-Validation (CV) is the default choice for evaluating the performance of machine learning models. Despite its wide usage, their statistical benefits have remained half-understood, especially in challenging nonparametric regimes. In…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-22 Garud Iyengar , Henry Lam , Tianyu Wang

Cross-validation (CV) is one of the most popular tools for assessing and selecting predictive models. However, standard CV suffers from high computational cost when the number of folds is large. Recently, under the empirical risk…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-30 Yuetian Luo , Zhimei Ren , Rina Foygel Barber

With machine learning being a popular topic in current computational materials science literature, creating representations for compounds has become common place. These representations are rarely compared, as evaluating their performance -…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-26 Samantha Durdy , Michael Gaultois , Vladimir Gusev , Danushka Bollegala , Matthew J. Rosseinsky
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