Related papers: Interval-censored Hawkes processes
Self-exciting processes of Hawkes type have been used to model various phenomena including earthquakes, neural activities, and views of online videos. Studies of temporal networks have revealed that sequences of social interevent times for…
This study considers the Merton model with temporal correlation. We show the Merton model becomes Poisson process with the log-normal distributed intensity function in the limit. We discuss the relation between this model and Hawkes…
The Poisson process is the most elementary continuous-time stochastic process that models a stream of repeating events. It is uniquely characterised by a single parameter called the rate. Instead of a single value for this rate, we here…
Many self-exciting systems change because endogenous amplification, as opposed to exogenous forcing, varies. We study a Hawkes process with fixed background rate and kernel, but piecewise time-varying productivity. For exponential kernels…
Previous approaches to modelling interval-censored data have often relied on assumptions of homogeneity in the sense that the censoring mechanism, the underlying distribution of occurrence times, or both, are assumed to be time-invariant.…
Stochastic models for performance analysis, optimization and control of queues hinge on a multitude of alternatives for input point processes. In case of bursty traffic, one very popular model is the \textit{Markov Modulated Poisson…
How to include censored data in a statistical analysis is a recur-rent issue in statistics. In multivariate extremes, the dependence structure of large observations can be characterized in terms of a non parametric angular measure, while…
We consider a system of $N$ Hawkes processes and observe the actions of a subpopulation of size $K \le N$ up to time $t$, where $K$ is large. The influence relationships between each pair of individuals are modeled by i.i.d.Bernoulli($p$)…
Social media conversations unfold based on complex interactions between users, topics and time. While recent models have been proposed to capture network strengths between users, users' topical preferences and temporal patterns between…
We propose a Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Neural Hawkes Process for modeling complex multivariate event data with spatio-temporal dynamics. The proposed model extends continuous-time neural Hawkes processes by integrating spatial…
We observe the actions of a $K$ sub-sample of $N$ individuals up to time $t$ for some large $K\le N$. We model the relationships of individuals by i.i.d. Bernoulli($p$)-random variables, where $p\in (0,1]$ is an unknown parameter. The rate…
Confidence intervals for a binomial parameter or for the ratio of Poisson means are commonly desired in high energy physics (HEP) applications such as measuring a detection efficiency or branching ratio. Due to the discreteness of the data,…
We investigate spatio-temporal event analysis using point processes. Inferring the dynamics of event sequences spatiotemporally has many practical applications including crime prediction, social media analysis, and traffic forecasting. In…
We introduce and study an alternative form of the chaotic expansion for counting processes using the Poisson imbedding representation; we name this alternative form \textit{pseudo-chaotic expansion}. As an application, we prove that the…
We propose a novel class of network models for temporal dyadic interaction data. Our goal is to capture a number of important features often observed in social interactions: sparsity, degree heterogeneity, community structure and…
Terrorist activities often exhibit temporal and spatial clustering, making the multivariate Hawkes process (MHP) a useful statistical model for analysing terrorism across different geographic regions. However, terror attack data from the…
In this paper, we use the Hawkes process to model the sequence of failure, i.e., events of compressor station and conduct survival analysis on various failure events of the compressor station. However, until now, nearly all relevant…
This paper studies nonparametric estimation of parameters of multivariate Hawkes processes. We consider the Bayesian setting and derive posterior concentration rates. First rates are derived for L1-metrics for stochastic intensities of the…
Hawkes Processes are a type of point process which models self-excitement among time events. It has been used in a myriad of applications, ranging from finance and earthquakes to crime rates and social network activity analysis.Recently, a…
The Poisson process is one of the simplest stochastic processes defined in continuous time, having interesting mathematical properties, leading, in many situations, to applications mathematically treatable. One of the limitations of the…